Fundamental Market Analysis for July 13, 2026 (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
EURUSD:
For the euro, the key factor today is not only pressure from higher energy prices, but also the market’s reassessment of ECB expectations. Rising oil prices are again increasing inflation risks in the eurozone, reducing the likelihood of an overly soft stance from the central bank. The regional economy remains sensitive to import costs, but the inflation channel may temporarily support the euro.
The US dollar remains supported by geopolitical tension and higher US Treasury yields. However, part of this advantage has already been priced in after the recent reassessment of Federal Reserve expectations. Ahead of the US inflation release, market participants may be more cautious about increasing dollar exposure, especially if they expect confirmation of slower price pressure in the US. This creates room for a recovery in EURUSD.
Under the baseline scenario, the euro’s advantage looks moderate, but more justified than continued selling after a strong reaction to the external shock. If ECB expectations remain steady and US data does not strengthen the case for a tougher Federal Reserve stance, the pair may receive support. Against the current fundamental backdrop, the buying idea looks like a workable scenario.
Trading idea: BUY 1.1400, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1490
GBPUSD:
The pound is receiving local support from expectations around the Bank of England. For the UK central bank, not only current inflation matters, but also the stability of corporate price expectations and wage pressure. With the economy highly sensitive to energy costs, the market may continue to price in the possibility of further rate increases. This makes the pound less vulnerable to broad US dollar demand.
The political factor in the UK remains a source of caution, but it no longer looks like clear pressure on the currency. The market previously responded positively to signals of commitment to fiscal rules, reducing the premium for fiscal risk. If the new political framework does not undermine confidence in the bond market, the domestic backdrop may support interest in UK assets.
For GBPUSD, the key issue is the contrast between local UK factors and the US dollar, which has already gained support from geopolitics and yields. If Bank of England expectations remain firmer and US inflation does not give the dollar a new impulse, the pound may extend its recovery. Under current conditions, the buying idea better reflects the updated fundamental balance.
Trading idea: BUY 1.3380, SL 1.3350, TP 1.3470
USDJPY:
The yen remains influenced by domestic Japanese factors, which have become more visible after new signals from the authorities. Discussions about increasing pension fund investments in Japanese assets showed that Tokyo is looking not only for verbal measures, but also for market-based ways to reduce pressure on the currency. At sensitive exchange rate levels, this increases market caution over further growth in USDJPY.
The Bank of Japan also has reasons to assess inflation more carefully. A weak yen raises import costs, while expensive energy increases pressure on companies and households. If the central bank continues to highlight the risk of inflation overshooting, expectations for further Bank of Japan steps may support demand for the yen, despite the still wide interest rate gap.
The US dollar continues to rely on yields and Federal Reserve expectations, so a decline in the pair does not look one-sided. Still, the combination of elevated exchange rate levels, the risk of a response from Japanese authorities, and a more attentive Bank of Japan stance limits the potential for further dollar buying against the yen. In the current fundamental backdrop, the selling idea remains the more balanced scenario.
Trading idea: SELL 162.00, SL 162.30, TP 161.10
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