Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 25 – 29, 2026

The past week was marked by a partial strengthening of the US dollar and weaker demand for risk assets. Published US business activity and labour market data generally confirmed the resilience of the economy but did not provide the market with sufficient reasons to expect a near-term easing of Federal Reserve policy. At the same time, reduced concerns about supply disruptions lowered the geopolitical premium in oil prices, which led to a correction in commodities and weaker demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, the dollar remained supported, while gold and cryptocurrencies came under pressure.

💶 EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.1600, moving into the lower part of the medium-term sideways range of 1.1400-1.1850. After several weeks of attempts to hold above 1.1700, the market returned to the key support area. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1670-1.1700. In case of a move back above this zone, the next target may be the 1.1755-1.1785 area. Support is located at 1.1580-1.1600, followed by 1.1500-1.1530, 1.1445 and 1.1390-1.1410. While the price remains near 1.1600, the scenario stays neutral, although a downside breakout may increase pressure on the euro.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

On Saturday, May 23, BTC/USD is trading near 74,650, continuing its decline from the local highs of May. After another failed attempt to secure a position above 80,000, the market returned to the lower boundary of the recent range. The nearest resistance is located at 78,100-79,500. Only a confident move back above this zone would allow the market to target 82,000-82,800 again. A rise to the 85,000-90,000 area currently appears unlikely. The nearest support is located at 73,300-74,150, followed by 70,500-71,200 and 65,000-66,000. While BTC/USD remains below 80,000, the scenario stays neutral-to-bearish with the risk of moderate downside pressure.

🛢 Brent Oil

Brent closed the week at 100.75 dollars per barrel, retreating noticeably from local highs but maintaining positions above the psychological 100.00 level. Reduced concerns over supply disruptions partially lowered the geopolitical premium, although developments in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz continue to remain a source of high volatility. The nearest resistance is located at 105.00-106.00, followed by 112.00 and 119.00. Support is located at 100.00, then 97.00-98.00 and 94.00-95.00. While the price remains above 100.00, the baseline scenario stays neutral-to-bullish.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold closed the week at 4,508 dollars per ounce, continuing its correction amid a stronger dollar and lower demand for safe-haven assets. After moving below 4,550, the market approached the next support area at 4,450-4,500, followed by 4,350-4,400 and 4,200-4,250. The nearest resistance is located at 4,570-4,600, followed by 4,650-4,660, 4,765-4,800 and 4,855-4,890. While prices remain below 4,550, the scenario stays neutral-to-bearish.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

In the coming week, market attention will once again shift to inflation and the assessment of the US economic outlook. On May 28, revised US GDP data is expected, while additional attention will be focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – one of the key indicators for the Federal Reserve. One day earlier, on May 27, the ECB press conference will take place, and at the very end of the week, on May 29, inflation data from Germany – the largest economy in the eurozone – will be released.

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral near 1.1600 with a risk of decline toward 1.1500-1.1530. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 80,000. Brent – neutral-to-bullish above 100.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bearish below 4,550.