(06 JUNE 2018)DAILY MARKET BRIEF 1:EUR better bid despite Italian uncertainties
The single currency extended gains on Wednesday with EUR/USD finally breaking the 1.1745 resistance to the upside and EUR/CHF climbing towards 1.16. The fact that the euro is not getting under more significant pressures could be surprising, especially after the new Italian government won the Senate confidence vote. However, Giuseppe Conti, the prime minister, said his government has no intention to leave the Eurozone but called for a redistribution of asylum seekers around the EU. In his first speech before the senate, he reiterated the anti-austerity calls of the coalition and a friendlier stands towards Russia.
Even though everything seems to go well in the FX market, the same cannot be said for the bond market. Indeed, Italian yields climbed further yesterday and the move continued on Wednesday with the 2-year and 10-year rates rising as much as 1.49% and 2.96%, respectively. Market participants also dumped Italian equities as the FTSE MIB fell more than 1% during the European morning.
Therefore, it looks like investors do not believe the Italian situation will affect negatively the entire EU but will remain contained to Italy. Investors are fleeing Italian assets but not European one, for now at least. Against such a backdrop, we would rather remain cautious regarding a return of EUR/CHF around 1.20 in the short-term. On the other hand, believe that that there is room for further appreciation in EUR/USD as the trade war between the USA and its allies will weigh on the greenback.
By Arnaud Masset
