EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 25.09 - 02.10: bullish ranging near Ichimoku cloud reversal area

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 12:08

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 25 - October 02 (based on the article)

The Fed came and went and so did the BOJ, leaving a mixed picture after the high tension. Speeches from Yellen and Draghi among others, US Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods orders and GDP data from the US, UK, and Canada, stand out. These are the highlights on forex calendar.

1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Economists’ forecast German business climate will reach 106.3 in September.
2. Mario Draghi speaks: Monday, 14:00. Market volatility is expected. He may provide more details about how QE will evolve, something he did not do in the post-rate decision presser.
3. Stephen Poloz speaks: Monday, 23:10. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will give a talk in Washington DC.
4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. US consumer confidence is expected to reach 98.6 this time.
5. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Durable orders are expected to decline by 1.0% and core orders are predicted to decrease by 0.5% on August.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Some analysts claim U.S. crude stockpiles are still too high and prices could come under pressure again.
7. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 6:35. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak in Tokyo. Market volatility is expected.
8. US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30. The final growth rate for the second quarter is expected to be 1.3%.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new unemployment claims is expected to be 260,000 this week.
10. FED Chair Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 20:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a talk at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City. Market volatility is expected.
11. Canadian GDP data: Friday, 12:30.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.26 11:43

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German IFO Business Climate and 11 pips price movement

2016-09-26 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German IFO Business Climate]

• past data is 106.2
• forecast data is 106.3
• actual data is 109.5 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German IFO Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips price movement by German IFO Business Climate news event

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.26 17:07

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. New Home Sales

2016-09-26 14:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

• past data is 659K
• forecast data is 598K
• actual data is 609K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.

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From Market Watch article: New-home sales slip in August but top forecast

• "Sales of newly-constructed homes dropped 7.6% in August but beat forecasts, according to data released Monday."
• "New home sales ran at a 609,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Commerce Department said. That was 20.6% higher compared to a year ago."

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EUR/USD M5: 10 pips range price movement by U.S. New Home Sales news events

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USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by U.S. New Home Sales news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.27 10:24

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is on bullish ranging above 100 SMA/200 SMA area within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1283 resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.1220 support level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bearish trend to be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be on ranging within 1.1120/1.1290 levels:

"While the undertone for EUR has improved with the reasonably strong daily closing yesterday, it is premature to expect a sustained up-move. 1.1290 is still acting as strong resistance and even if there is a break above level, EUR is expected to face another solid resistance near 1.1325. That said, for the next few days, the positive undertone would stay intact unless there is a move back below 1.1180."

• If daily price breaks 1.1283 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.1122 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.27 16:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-09-27 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 101.8
• forecast data is 99.0
• actual data is 104.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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EUR/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CAD M5: 40 pips price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.28 15:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: Durable Goods Orders

2016-09-28 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 3.6%
• forecast data is -1.0%
• actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders lose steam in August

"Orders for durable or long-lasting goods flattened out in August after a sizable gain in the prior month, pointing to ongoing difficulties for American manufacturers. Orders fell 22% for large commercial aircraft, a volatile category that’s exhibited large swings during the summer. Bookings for new autos rose 0.7%, however. Stripping out transportation, orders sagged 0.4%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Demand declined for heavy machinery, computers and electrical equipment. What’s more, shipments of core capital goods, a category used to help determine gross domestic product, fell 0.4% to mark the fourth straight decline."

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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AUD/USD M5: 15 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.29 15:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-09-29 12:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 1.1%
• forecast data is 1.3%
• actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CAD M5: 25 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.02 13:18

Fundamental Q4'16 Forecasts for EUR/USD (based on the article)

EUR/USD - "Put simply, if there is a seismic shift in the US political environment, the Fed will be forced to go back to the drawing board and dramatically alter its growth and inflation forecasts. Doing so will likely come at the expense of a rate hike this year - which means one less reason to like the greenback. There are thus two periods to watch for on the US Dollar side: the run-up to the election on November 8; then the fallout and lead-in to the December 14 FOMC meeting. Even though EUR/USD is coiling now, there are plenty of reasons to look for increased volatility."