8 April 2016, 12:27
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Neutral: Likely in a broad 1.1330/1.1495 range.

EUR touched 1.1453 yesterday but dropped quickly from the high. We continue to hold a neutral view but the shorter-term undertone is not as positive anymore and a clear break below 1.1325/30 would indicate that the immediate pressure has shifted to the downside. 

GBP/USD: Neutral: Still neutral but downside risk has increased.

As mentioned yesterday, while the downside risk has clearly increased, we prefer to maintain our neutral view unless there is a clear break below the major 1.4000 support.

Overall, the downward pressure will continue to grow unless this pair can move back above 1.4200 in the next 1 to 2 days. 

AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back could extend lower to 0.7475/80.

The price action is line with our view wherein we expect the current pull-back in AUD to extend lower to 0.7475/80. Based on the internal momentum, a move below this level would not be surprising but a sustained drop below this level appears unlikely at this stage.

Resistance is at 0.7585 and yesterday high of 0.7635/40 is unlikely to come under threat, at least not for the next couple of days. 

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NZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6720/0.6930 range.

There is not much to add as we continue to hold a neutral NZD view and expect this pair to trade in a broad 0.6720/0.6930 range

USD/JPY: Bearish: Next significant support at 106.50.

When we turned bearish two days ago, we were of the opinion that we may have seen a bulk of USD weakness in view of the rapid and extended sharp drop. However, USD continues with its relentless down-move and touched an overnight low of 107.67. The next significant support is at the middle of the weekly trading envelope which is at 106.50.

Interestingly, this level coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 75.31 (Oct 2011) to 125.85 (Jun 2015). While this is the obvious level to aim for, short-term momentum are showing early signs of slowing and this coupled with extreme oversold condition suggests that the odds for move to 106.50 are not very high.

All that said, the outlook for USD is deemed as bearish unless there is a move above 110.10 (109.00 is already a strong short-term resistance).

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