Weekly economic outlook Nov 16-20

Weekly economic outlook Nov 16-20

16 November 2015, 09:14

This week is going to be busier for the markets, compared to the previous one.

The FOMC minutes are coming out along with multiple speeches from Fed members and ECB head Mario Draghi. Moreover, several nations are to issue their inflation reports.

Monday, November 16

Japan has issued preliminary data on third quarter growth.

The euro zone is to publish revised data on CPI. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain at 0% while the core CPI rate is expected to have declined to 0.9% from 1%.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Madrid.

Deutsche Bundesbank is to release the German Buba Monthly Report, which contains statistical tables, speeches and analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Canada is to post data on manufacturing sales and foreign investment.

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Tuesday, November 17

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.

New Zealand is to issue inflation expectations.

The U.K. is to release data on consumer price inflation.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment. The ZEW survey, which gauges the economic sentiment of institutional investors and analysts in Germany (along with the broad EU in separate surveys), is a modestly reliable indicator of future patterns. Both the German current conditions and the economic sentiment in November are expected to show improvement, as well as the euro area’s economic sentiment.

The U.S. is to release reports on inflation and industrial production. The headline CPI is expected to edge up slightly to 0.1% from flat, while the month over month indicator is expected to signal an increase of 0.2% on the consuming prices. The notable thing is that the CPI is falling while the job growth is rising. Inflation enables the labor market to adjust more quickly during a downturn and helps the economy expand faster since a unit of currency buys more goods and services.

The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) housing market index is estimated to increase slightly to 65 from 64 (ahead the Housing Starts and Building Permits on Wednesday).

Wednesday, November 18

The ECB will have a meeting in the early European session.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is to speak at an event in New York.

The U.S. is to publish data on building permits and housing starts.

Later in the day, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.

Thursday, November 19

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which will describe economic conditions and the factors affecting the decision on the monetary policy.

The U.K. is to release data on retail sales which are expected to decline.

The ECB is to publish the minutes of its latest meeting.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

The U.S. Conference Board leading indicator is coming out for October. Although it will not affect the market, it is worth looking at it.

Friday, November 20

ECB head Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt. At the last event, Draghi said that economic risks in the region were “clearly visible,” suggesting that a more aggressive quantitative easing package could be on the way. Currently, the ECB is buying 60bn euros of mostly government bonds a month.

The U.K. is to release data on public sector borrowing.

In Europe, euro zone consumer confidence for November is expected to improve slightly to -7.5 vs –7.7 from the previous reading.

Canada is to report on CPI and Retail Sales. The main inflation rate is expected to remain stable at 1.0% in October.

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