Deutsche Bank made a fundamental forecast concerning GBP stated that it is not a time for this currency to be reversed to the bearish market condition in the near future for example:
- "First, the risk remains that the Bank of England defies markets by tightening sooner than currently anticipated."
- "Second, positioning has lightened significantly.
Implied EUR/GBP shorts on the IMM are now at early 2014 levels. Volumes
have also dropped off according to our DB Flow Report."
- "Third, underlying flows continue to be very healthy. The most high frequency data shows the UK has notched up 72bn of combined gilt and M&A inflows since March, in both cases accelerating from the first quarter. With gilt-bund spreads remaining at record highs and the investment environment favorable, there is no reason to think either should pause."
Let's evaluate this fundamental forecast from the technical points of view.
As we see from Ichimoku chart above - the price is ranging within the following key s/r levels:
- 1.5929 key resistance level located near and above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
- 1.5134/1.5088 key support levels located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart.
Thus, from the technical point of vew - weekly price for GBP/USD is just a ranging on the border between bearish and bullish trend. And fundamental factors in this case are the key ones for this pair to take a direction of the movement on the currect and next weeks for example.
By the way, daily price was already turned to the bearish condition by good breakdown, and monthly price is on bearish market condition for now so let's see ...
