Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 05–09, 2026
The first full trading week of 2026 begins after the holiday break amid mixed dynamics in global markets. Market participants are gradually returning to active trading, while the US dollar is showing moderate strengthening. Global liquidity remains restrained, and investors’ attention is shifting back to macroeconomic data, which is likely to shape market sentiment and set the direction of price movements in the coming days.
💶 EUR/USD
As expected, after testing resistance at 1.1800, the EUR/USD pair pulled back to the 1.1700 area and ended the week at 1.1720, holding above key support levels. In the coming week, an attempt to move higher towards resistance at 1.1765 is expected, followed by a possible retest of the 1.1800–1.1820 zone. A confident breakout above this area would open the way towards 1.1900-1.1915 and then 1.2000. Otherwise, if the pair breaks below support at 1.1700, the next targets will be 1.1650-1.1680, followed by 1.1575-1.1615.
₿ BTC/USD
bitcoin ignored the strengthening US dollar and closed Friday’s session near the psychologically important 90,000 level, at 90,024. At the same time, BTC/USD remains within the 83,800-94,500 consolidation range, trading near its midpoint. To cancel the bearish scenario and resume sustainable growth, the pair needs to consolidate above the 95,000-100,000 zone. This would require strong fundamental drivers, which are currently absent. Fading bullish momentum may lead to a pullback towards the lower boundary of the range. If support at 83,800 is broken, the next bearish target will be 80,540.
🛢️ Brent
Brent crude oil finished the week at 60.69 USD per barrel, remaining under pressure after an unsuccessful “pre-Christmas” bullish attempt. From this level, a new rebound towards 62.00–62.20 is possible, with a target at 63.00, followed by the risk of a return to 60.00 and then to 58.50 and the yearly low at 58.17. At the same time, markets remain cautious amid the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by US special services. Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, and further developments in the country could have a very strong impact on oil prices.
🥇 XAU/USD
As forecast, after reaching a new all-time high, gold entered a corrective phase and ended the week at 4,332 USD per ounce. In recent days, the price has been moving around the Pivot Point at 4,350, while remaining above the key support zone of 4,200-4,250. This week, a short-term correction towards this support area is possible, followed by a renewed rise towards 4,375-4,400. A breakout above this resistance zone would open the way towards 4,485-4,550. A decline and consolidation below 4,170 would cancel the bullish scenario and signal the risk of a deeper correction towards 4,000-4,020.
🧭 Conclusion
During the period from January 05 to 09, 2026, market attention will be focused on US business activity data (ISM PMI), labour market indicators, including the ADP report and jobless claims, as well as the publication of the US December employment report (non-farm payrolls). In Europe, the key event will be eurozone inflation data, which may influence expectations regarding ECB monetary policy.
Baseline scenarios: For EUR/USD – neutral to moderately bearish while the pair remains below 1.1820; downside risks increase if 1.1650 is broken. For BTC/USD – neutral to moderately bullish while trading above 90,000, with key resistance at 95,000. For Brent – neutral to moderately bearish while the price remains below 63.00-65.00, with strong dependence on developments in Venezuela. For XAU/USD – bullish while gold remains above 4,250.
