Market Forecast for December 29, 2025 – January 02, 2026
The past week unfolded against the backdrop of gradually declining liquidity ahead of the Christmas holidays and a limited number of major macroeconomic releases. Market attention was focused on US data, including revised GDP estimates for Q3 and PCE inflation figures published on December 23-24. These releases set the overall trading tone, although in thin market conditions price movements were often amplified by positioning adjustments and year-end profit-taking.
💶 EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the week with a gain of 63 points (1.1771 versus 1.1708 a week earlier), fully validating our moderately bullish outlook. In the coming days, a renewed test of the 1.1800-1.1820 resistance zone is possible. From this area, a pullback towards 1.1700 may develop, while a deeper correction could target 1.1650-1.1680 and then 1.1575-1.1615. A confident break above 1.1800-1.1820 would open the way towards 1.1900-1.1915 and then 1.2000. It should be borne in mind that during the holiday period price movements may be distorted by low liquidity, therefore level breakouts should be treated with caution unless confirmed by follow-through.
💹 BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed Friday, December 26, near 87,400, remaining within a narrow consolidation range of 86,360-90,580. At the start of the new year, liquidity remains the key driver, meaning sharp impulses are possible even in the absence of major news catalysts. Volatility may expand into the 83,800-94,500 range. To cancel the bearish scenario and resume sustainable growth, the pair would need to consolidate above the 95,000-100,000 zone; however, this currently appears unlikely. In the event of a break below the 83,800 support, the next bearish target would be 80,540.
🛢 Brent
Our oil forecast was fully validated. Last week, amid a “pre-Christmas” bullish push, Brent rose to 62.17 dollars per barrel, after which sellers sharply reversed the market, driving prices down to 60.10, with the close at 60.39. It should be recalled that on December 16 the price fell below 60.00 for the first time since May, and this level remains a key support/resistance zone. In the near term, a rebound towards 61.50-63.00 is possible, with the risk of a return to 60.00 and then to 58.50 and the yearly low at 58.17. Consolidation above 65.00-66.00 would cancel the bearish scenario and open the way for a recovery towards the 69.00-70.00 area.
🥇 XAU/USD
What we had repeatedly warned about has materialised: on December 23 gold reached 4,500 dollars per ounce and closed the week at 4,532, maintaining a strong uptrend. In conditions of reduced liquidity, corrective pullbacks may be swift; however, demand could remain resilient as long as key support levels hold. A short-term correction towards 4,350-4,380 is possible. A break below 4,250 would temporarily cancel the bullish scenario and point to the risk of a deeper correction towards 4,170-4,200. If growth resumes, the bulls’ objective in Q1 2026 will be to reach 4,700 and, in the event of a favourable macro environment, 5,000.
📈 Conclusion
In the coming week, the global economic calendar is virtually empty, as financial markets operate with significantly reduced activity due to the holidays, while central banks and statistical agencies in most countries are closed or release minimal data.
Baseline scenario: neutral with a moderately bullish bias while EUR/USD remains above the 1.1680-1.1700 zone. For BTC/USD, a neutral outlook within the consolidation range; for Brent, neutral with a moderately bearish bias. For XAU/USD, bullish, with buying on pullbacks from 4,350-4,380 and 4,250.
