EUR/USD Fundamentals - Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast by Credit Suisse

EUR/USD Fundamentals - Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast by Credit Suisse

30 September 2015, 12:11
Sergey Golubev
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1 797

Credit Suisse made a fundamental forecast for the high impacted news events which will be on Friday: Non-Farm Employment Change:

"We project Friday’s payrolls to show +195k jobs in September (consensus), up from last month’s +173k, due to strong growth in the construction and service producing sectors. Unemployment is forecasted to remain at 5.1% in line with consensus, while average hourly earnings should increase 0.2% (consensus 0.2%), taking the year over year figure to 2.4%, its highest point since August 2009."

2015-10-02 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 173K
  • forecast data is 202K
  • actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

If actual data > forecast or previous data = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]= Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
.

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As we see - Credit Suisse estimated for NFP to be 195K against 202K forecast and 173K previous data. It means that we should expect the bullish condition in short term situation during and immediate after this news event on Friday.

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EURUSD M5: 100 pips ranging price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:

M5 chart


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