Deutsche Bank: bullish condition for EUR/USD during and immediate after NFP

Deutsche Bank: bullish condition for EUR/USD during and immediate after NFP

3 September 2015, 06:11
Sergey Golubev
1
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BNP Paribas made the forecast for NFP to be more than 220K on Friday: "Our economists expect an above-consensus 230K increase in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%."

By the way, Deutsche Bank is expecting for NFP to be significantly below 220K expectation:

  • "To be clear, we do not believe that underlying momentum in the labor market has meaningfully deteriorated. As we have previously noted, August employment has historically tended to disappoint consensus expectations. The last four August payroll reports were all weaker than expected; they were on average 55k below consensus."
  • "The data are even more compelling if we go back further in time. Since 1988, when our sample begins, August nonfarm payrolls have disappointed the financial markets in 21 of the last 27 years, or 78% of the time. The average forecasting error has been -61k. The range of misses, though, has been large. The median forecast error has been -42k."

So, we can expect the following concerning EUR/USD for example:

  • BNP Paribas - bearish condition for this pair during and immediate after this high impacted news event.
  • Deutsche Bank - bullish condition for this pair during and immediate after this high impacted news event.

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2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]

  • past data is 215K
  • forecast data is 220K
  • actual data is n/a

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.


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