Gold Prices Slip on Strong Dollar (based on wsj article)
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to retain
its current policy in September, the fresh updates coming out of the
Governing Council may trigger a selloff in EUR/USD should the committee
show a greater willingness to expand/extend its quantitative easing (QE)
Why Is This Event Important
Dovish rhetoric accompanied by a downward revision in the ECB’s growth
& inflation forecast is likely to dampen the appeal of the Euro, and
central bank President Mario Draghi may talk up bets for additional
monetary support in an effort to further insulate the fragile recovery
Nevertheless, we may get more of the same from the ECB as the
non-standard measures work through the real economy, and the near-term
bound in EUR/USD may gather pace in September should the central bank
endorse a wait-and-see approach.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Shows Greater Willingness for Larger/Longer QE Program
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $41.9 billion in July, down $3.3 billion from $45.2 billion in June, revised. July exports were $188.5 billion, $0.8 billion more than June exports. July imports were $230.4 billion, $2.5 billion less than June imports."
EURUSD M5: 166 pips price movement by USD - Trade Balance news event:
The Royal Bank of Scotland: Non-Farm Employment Change and basic trading scenarios (based on efxnews article)
The Royal Bank of Scotland evaluated some scenarios concerning NFP for today (September 4 at 13:30 GMT).
As we know - Non-Farm
Payrolls is the most high impacted news event which can move the price
for the pairs and estimate the direction of the trend for the next week
for example.Just to remind about this news event:==========
2015-09-03 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
EURUSD M5 : 44 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Payrolls news event:
Trading NFP by Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)
Credit Agricole expects NFP to be 220K and
unemployment rate of 5.3%:
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Rate]
if actual < forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
This is ranging price movement during this high impacted news events. Ranging because of the following:
That is why ranging.
EURUSD M5: 100 pips ranging price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
Forex Weekly Outlook September 7-11 (based on forexcrunch article)
September began with more volatility and more uncertainty. Rate decisions in Canada; New Zealand and the UK, Employment data in Australia and US consumer sentiment all stand out. These are the main events on our calendar for this week. Join us as we explore these financial highlights.
The U.S. economy produced 173,000 jobs in August,falling short of estimates but with positive revisions and upbeat wage growth. The release came at a crucial timing of the rate-hike debate and the mixed report raised uncertainty, but we think the Fed could still bring on a “dovish hike”. In the euro-zone, things are far from quiet, with Draghi showing his will to act, weighing heavily on the euro. Commodity currencies couldn’t enjoy the Chinese holiday and were hit hard. Things are going to get messy again.
USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD: Outlooks For The Coming Week - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)
USD: USD Strong Against EM. Bullish."We believe that USD strength will continue to be focused against
commodity and EM currencies. Volatility remains elevated and risks
surrounding China could keep it high. Should China be resolved, this
could lead to a temporary rally in EM FX, but it would not be long
before the market started bringing forward the timing of the first Fed
hike, ending any relief rally in EM FX. We remain generally bullish USD."
EUR: The ECB Pushes Back. Neutral."The latest ECB press conference was dovish in tone, and the central
bank increased the amount it can purchase of new issuances. In only
making one adjustment to its current policy, the central bank kept the
door open for further easing, contributing to the weakness seen in EUR.
The central bank will need to maintain its dovish tone going forward to
avoid the currency gaining ground once again off the back of its current
account surplus and inverse relationship with risk."
JPY: Watch Wages. Neutral."More global asset market volatility would support the safe haven JPY,
but we have to increasingly be aware of the risk of a BoJ response.
After a 2Q contraction, the ramp into 3Q growth remains disappointing.
Key will be cash earnings to test if the BoJ’s narrative of higher
corporate profits filtering through to wages is gaining traction."
GBP: Waiting for Opportunities to Sell. Bearish."We maintain our bearish GBP view, but are cautious that current levels
may not be the most attractive to enter short positions. Markets have
pushed the timing of the first hike in the UK back to August 2016, well
beyond our economists’ expectation of a February hike. However, risk
appetite remains weak and concerns in China are high. GBP tends to
underperform in periods of heightened volatility, and this could
AUD: Domestic Story Deteriorating. Bearish."Despite the sell-off already seen in AUD, we believe there is scope for
further weakness. It’s notable that AUD has sold off even as iron ore
prices rose recently, suggesting that it is more than simply a
reflection of external factors. Indeed, domestic data continue to
deteriorate and the market is now pricing in nearly a full cut by the
end of the year. Still, with our economists expecting a cut in November,
we believe the market will move to our more dovish view, pressuring
EUR/USD forecast: sideway trading for today and breaking the levels for tomorrow (based on efxnews article)
United Overseas Bank made a forecast for EUR/USD for today expecting the ranging market condition between 1.1105 and 1.1205:
Let's evaluate this forecast to estimate the levels for today and tomorrow.
EUR/USD: ranging for today and break the levels for tomorrow. This pair is
ranging between 100-SMA and 200-SMA within the following key levels:
means - if the price crosses 1.1339 resistance from below to above so
we may see the bullish breakout with the reversal of the price movement
to the bullish market condition. If the price crosses 1.0947 support so
it may be reversal to the bearish with good breakdown possibility.
the forecast of UOB may be the correct one but with the following
levels: 1.1339/1.0947. By the way, the daily levels for tomorrow are the
following: 1.1713 key resistance and 1.0807 key support: the price is
ranging between those 1.1713/1.0807 levels, and if the price breaks one
of those level - we may see the primary bearish/bullish trend to be
Thus, intraday levels are 1.1339/1.0947, and the levels for daily trading for this week are 1.1713/1.0807.
Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/USD - SEB (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: Downside risks still persist. "Last week ended
with some rather choppy hours post the NFP and the hourly chart
indicates either a possible bear triangle or a bear flag in the making.
The first alternative points at resuming sellers in the 1.1170’s and
latter one closer to 1.12. Both alternatives will be given a bearish
confirmation breaking below 1.1090."
EUR/JPY: Should soon run into offers. "Last week ended
with another clearly bearish weekly candle, the second consecutive one.
On a shorter time frame the market traced, as outlined, out a couple of
fresh lows before started to correct some of the latest decline. This
corrective move higher is seen primarily ending towards 133.65.
Thereafter our focus will again turn to the downside and a resumption of
the bear trend."
GBP/USD: A small bounce, then lower again. "The pair
reached 1.5170 support on Friday and the much muted reaction from the
support is clearly sending a bearish message. The weekly candle also
became a good follow through one to the preceding week’s bearish key
week reversal. All in all the downside pressure remains high and only a
minor bounce should hence be justified from current levels."
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