EUR/USD Price Action Analysis - ranging bearish

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.13 14:20

UBS AG: short-term strategies for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)

UBS AG is a Swiss global financial companymaking currency forecasts and some prediction for EUR/USd and some other pairs. They are often publishing some trade ideas and reviews concerning technicals and fundamentals.

For example, this is their well-known prediction for USDCNY immediate after first CNY devaluation: "We now expect USDCNY trading at about 6.5 by end 2015E instead of 6.3 as previously envisaged, and 6.6 at end 2016E."

So, please find below very short ideas from UBS concerning EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD. Those idea can be valid for tomorrow and for coming week as well:

1. EUR/USD: "remains in the 1.0800-1.1200 range, though it has traded bid since the yuan devaluation. Stay flexible and trade the intraday moves."
2. USDJPY: "With the market calming down in China, we think USDJPY is a buy on dips close to 124, with a stop below 123.50."
   
3. AUD/USD: "has recovered sharply after an initial fall following the yuan devaluation.  Sell any rallies towards 0.7400, with a stop above 0.7425."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.14 07:46

EUR/USD key levels for the bulls from JP Morgan (based on forexlive article)

JP Morgan publish the next technical analysis for EURUSD, and for now - about the key levels for the bullish trend to be continuing in intra-day and day trading:

• "For the bulls to really gain more traction and in order to free the way for a much broader recovery towards 1.1699 and 1.1811 (int. 38.2 % on highest scales), it would take additional breaks above 1.1288 (int. 76.4 % on higher scale) and ultimately above 1.1383 (daily trend)."
• "Particularly below 1.1288, the market remains in the danger zone."

As we see from intra-day H1 chart - the EUR/USD is traded between Fibo resistance at 1.1160 and 23.6% Fibo support at 1.1145 for possible breakout of the price movement of the key resistance levels. Thus, forecast made by JP Morgan may be the rrue in this case.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.14 11:28

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD - Intraday by SEB (based on efxnews article)

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB) made some intra-day analysis for few pairs whch may be used for the next week for example. Those pairs are the following: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP and AUD/USD. This is very short technical analysis for good s/r levels and for the direction to be followed:

EUR/USD: "The failed move below 1.1126 (and the created downside spike) keeps the short term wave pattern unclear. As long as 1.1190 remains unbroken there’s still a possibility that an upward correction ended the other day but if making way above the resistance new highs should be penciled in."

USD/JPY: "With the pair still below the mid body resistance downside risks are increasing. If also today manages to stay below 124.68 then downside risks will be even further enhanced going into next week. A move below 124.07 will likely lead to a loss of the 123.79 key support."

EUR/GBP: "The ongoing correction has still room to move a bit further north. The primary target for the move is 0.7176 with a possible extension towards the trend line at 0.7200. Once there look for offers to be returning."

AUD/USD: "After the latest rejection from the 2001 trend line the pair fell down but only to a marginally new low. Price action with no follow through selling together with a bullish divergence hints of an overly oversold market and therefore also an increasing reaction risk. Shorts should be very cautious should we break above 0.7440 (if such a move takes place today it will also create a bullish key week reversal)."

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.14 19:00

Forex Weekly Outlook August 17-21 (based on forexcrunch article)

Japan GDP data, Inflation in the UK, the US and Canada, FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. These are our market movers for this week. Join us as we explore the highlights on Forex calendar.

U.S. data released last week raises hopes for a Fed rate hike by the end of the third quarter. Retail sales rebounded in July amid a rise in purchases of automobiles and other goods, suggesting growth rate is positive in the second and third quarters. Retail sales edged up 0.6%, in line with market forecast, while core sales, excluding automobiles gained 0.4%. The robust release added to a strong employment data, suggesting the US economy is on solid footing. Will this trend continue?

1. Japan GDP data: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s economy recovered from the brief tax-induced recession in 2014, with GDP growth of 0.6% in the first quarter, exceeding market forecasts of 0.4% expansion rate. On a yearly base, GDP grew 2.4%, way above the 1.6% rise expected by analysts. Domestic consumption edged up 4.3% and wage growth increased, indicating a positive momentum. Exports increased 10% due to the weaker yen, but inflation continues to fail, despite the massive money-printing program aimed to lift inflation. Economists estimate a 0.5% contraction in the second quarter.
2. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK Inflation index inflation fell to 0% in June, from 0.1% in the prior month due to a decline in clothing and food prices as well as air fares. Bank of England governor Mark Carney expects inflation to remain low in the coming months, but anticipates a pick-up by the end of this year. However, rising wages expected to increase consumption, leading to stronger inflation pressure. UK CPI is expected to remain flat this time.
3. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of building permits issued in June edged up 7.4% to a 1.34 million-unit rate, the highest level since July 2007. Builders’ confidence also reached a 9-1/2-year high in July, indicating the housing market is expected to expand further in the coming months. Economists forecast that the housing market will compensate for the struggling manufacturing sector. The number of permits is expected to reach 1.21million in July.
4. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices increased 0.3% in June, rising for the fifth consecutive time after a rebound in gasoline prices as well as a range of other goods indicating inflation is back in track. The recent positive economic data such as the growth trend in the housing market raises the odds for a rate hike in the near future. June’s gain was preceded by a 0.4% in May. Both CPI and Core CPI are expected to gain 0.2% this time.
5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In their previous meeting, Federal Reserve officials started preparing for a rate raise later this year, amid promising economic data. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said he wants to make sure the economy progresses in line with the Fed’s expectations before voting to raise rates. Even those supporting the tightening measures, preferred to delay the rate hike until September.
6. Japan rate decision: Thursday. Aug 7 The Bank of Japan kept its accommodative monetary policy, aiming toward 2% inflation without additional monetary easing. However, economists believe the 2% deadline may be changed, depending on future oil price moves. The weak yen is positive for exports and companies but is bad for households and small firms via rising import costs. Household sentiment picked up and Consumer spending remained string after emerging from a temporary hit from bad weather.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased unexpectedly by 5,000 last week, reaching 274,000. However, the general trend remains positive, indicating the US labor market continues to strengthen. Analysts expected claims to reach 272,000, but the number of new claims continue to stay below the 300,000 threshold and the four-week moving average of claims fell 1,750 to 266,250, the lowest since April 2000. The number if new claims are expected to reach 272,000 this week.
8. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Philadelphia’s manufacturing gauge for the region plunged in June to 5.7 from 15.2 in June. The reading was worse than the 12.5 points estimated earlier but still indication expansion. The strong dollar and softer global demand lowered the number of orders for manufactured goods. Economists expect a meaningful rebound in the next few months. New orders reached 7.1, from 15.2 and employment remained flat. Philadelphia’s manufacturing index is expected to reach 7.2 in July.