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Non-Farm Payrolls: Goldman Sachs breaks down expectations

4 June 2015, 18:11

Sergey Golubev

288

According to Bloomberg: Economists forecast that the economy added 226,000 jobs in May, down from 223,000 in April, and unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.4%.

But Goldman Sachs' Kris Dawsey breaks down the firm's expectations for the jobs report:

The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims between the April and May reference periods for the jobs report fell by 19,000.
Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag. That's even though the oil rig count is slowly balancing out.
The consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years. Specifically, the average consensus error in May over the past five years has been -56,000.
ADP report showed that private payrolls expanded by 201,000 in May, beating forecasts by 1,000.

#fundamental analysis, Non-Farm Payrolls, Goldman Sachs

Source

Sergey Golubev 2015.06.05 05:31 #1

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.05 05:24

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rebound Capped Above 1.13 (based on dailyfx article)

Support: 1.1202, 1.1005, 1.0818
Resistance:1.1320, 1.1439, 1.1585

The Euro paused to digest gains having reversed upward as expected against the US Dollar following two days of aggressive gains. Near-term resistance is at 1.1320, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 clears the way for a test of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).

Sergey Golubev 2015.06.05 14:39 #2

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.05 14:37

2015-06-05 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 223K
forecast data is 222K
actual data is 280K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

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"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline."