Non-Farm Payrolls: Goldman Sachs breaks down expectations

Non-Farm Payrolls: Goldman Sachs breaks down expectations

4 June 2015, 18:11
Sergey Golubev

According to Bloomberg: Economists forecast that the economy added 226,000 jobs in May, down from 223,000 in April, and unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.4%.

But Goldman Sachs' Kris Dawsey breaks down the firm's expectations for the jobs report:

  • The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims between the April and May reference periods for the jobs report fell by 19,000.
  • Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag. That's even though the oil rig count is slowly balancing out.
  • The consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years. Specifically, the average consensus error in May over the past five years has been -56,000.
  • ADP report showed that private payrolls expanded by 201,000 in May, beating forecasts by 1,000.

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