Press review - page 323

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

Greece And EUR/USD: Solving Problems Nobody Knew About Is Better Than Not Having Problems (based on seekingalpha article)

  • Greece cannot or does not want to repay the June IMF credit installments.
  • IMF already yielded to give Greece time until end of June, will probably yield further.
  • EUR/USD movements suggest that the markets are happier with Greece solving their problems than not having the problems in the first place.
Greece And EUR/USD: Solving Problems Nobody Knew About Is Better Than Not Having Problems
Greece And EUR/USD: Solving Problems Nobody Knew About Is Better Than Not Having Problems
  • Mateusz Polak
  • seekingalpha.com
The EBC and IMF yielding and giving up some (or all) of Greece's debts would mean Greece getting closer to repaying whatever debt is left, and finally ceasing to be the central problem of the Eurozone. Greece has been the focus since the 2008 crisis, and by this point solving the problem is wanted whatever the cost.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Rebound Capped Above 1.13 (based on dailyfx article)

  • Support: 1.1202, 1.1005, 1.0818
  • Resistance:1.1320, 1.1439, 1.1585


The Euro paused to digest gains having reversed upward as expected against the US Dollar following two days of aggressive gains. Near-term resistance is at 1.1320, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 1.1439. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at 1.1202 clears the way for a test of the 1.1005-55 area (23.6% expansion, horizontal pivot).


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

The next great bull market: Gold $25,000 (based on marketwatch article)

"Suppose someone approached you in the year 2000, when the price of gold was around $250 an ounce and suggested that it would be worth almost eight times its current value within the next decade. I am sure most people would have thought that person to be less than credible making such an outrageous market call. Think about it. An asset being expected to multiply by eightfold within a decade? But as we all know now, gold went from $250 an ounce to just over $1,900 an ounce in just that amount of time."

"For those who still question how well Elliott Wave can really provide long-term accurate predictions of market direction relative to all other methodologies, allow me to present you with the following prediction made by Ralph Nelson Elliott in August of 1941:

“[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.”

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  
2015-06-05 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

==========

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 280,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Mining employment continued to decline."

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

Forex Weekly Outlook June 8-12 (based on forexcrunch article)

The US dollar had the final word in a turbulent and volatile week. G7 Meetings, a rate decision in New Zealand, employment data in Australia, as well as US retail sales, PPI and Consumer Sentiment stand out. These are the highlight events for this week. Join us as we explore the main market movers.

US Non-Farm Payrolls surprised with an excellent release showing a job gain of 280,000 in May. This was accompanied by a rise in wages widening participation and sent the dollar rallying. Things were more complicated beforehand for the greenback. The euro enjoyed the lack of worries from the ECB about bond volatility and the lack of rush to front load QE. Yet most of the EUR/USD surge was eventually erased. The pound suffered from a poor PMI while the Aussie only partially enjoyed the strong GDP report. What’s next for currencies? We can certainly agree with Draghi about getting used to volatility. Let’s start:

  1. G7 Meetings: Sun-Mon. finance ministers and central bankers from 7 industrialized nations will meet in Germany to discuss the escalating Greek debt crisis as well as global economy and foreign policy challenges. Russia will not participate in these meeting, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel noted there are many other ways to communicate with the Russian president. For example, the Normandy Format, where Germany and France together with Russia and Ukraine discuss how to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The IMF will lead the negotiations with Greece instead of a German-dominated negotiating forum.
  2. Glenn Stevens speaks: Wednesday, 2:50. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak in Melbourne after leaving us with a neutral bias in the last rate decision. Stevens may speak about the slower than expected pace of growth in Australian economy and the weakness in business capital expenditure in both the mining and non-mining sectors. However, the good news is that the Aussie depreciated in the past year, lowering key commodity prices.
  3. Mark Carney speaks: Wednesday, 20:00. BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in London. He may have to refer to the embarrassing revelation that the Bank of England is secretly planning for Britain’s exit from the European Union. “Project Bookend” was accidently delivered to an editor at The Guardian newspaper and was also kept from many of the BOE’s stuff. Market volatility is expected.
  4. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained rates at 3.5% in April, in light of the rising uncertainties in Europe, China and Australia as well as, domestic dependence on accommodative monetary settings. However, the massive decline in world oil prices is expected to boost growth since Crude oil prices are almost 50 percent below their July 2014 level. Inflation remains low but is expected to pick up gradually. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to maintain rates in June but many expect a cut later this year.
  5. Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. Australia’s unemployment rate in April increased mildly as expected, reaching 6.2%, after a fall of 2,900 positions in April. The unemployment in Australian remains above 6% in the last 11 months indicating sluggish growth in the Australian job market. Full-time employment decreased by 21,900, while part-time employment increased by 19,000. Australian employment market is expected to add 15,200 jobs while the unemployment rate is forecasted to remain at 6.2%.
  6. US Retail sales: Thursday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales remained flat in April amid reduction in purchases of automobiles, indicating the US economy is struggling to get back on track after sluggish growth in the first quarter. Hopes for a strong rebound in the second quarter are fading in light of this weak release as well as other economic indicators. Retail sales excluding automobiles, inched 0.1%, while expected to rise 0.4%. The lukewarm data suggests the Fed will not hurry to raise rates anytime soon. Analysts expect U.S. retail sales to edge up 1.1% and forecast core sales to rise 0.7%.
  7. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits declined unexpectedly last week to 276,000, remaining below 300,000 for the 13th week. The four-week average moved up 2,750 to 274,750. The relatively small number of employment seekers indicates improved job security. Economists hope for a solid job gain in May. Job growth remained strong despite temporary setbacks, suggesting employers were not deterred by the slowdown in the first quarter. The number of claims is expected to reach 277,000 this week.
  8. US PPI: Friday, 12:30. U.S. producer prices resumed their descent in April as energy prices continued to decline. Producer price index fell 0.4%, falling for the third time this year after rising 0.2% in March. In the 12 months through April, producer prices fell 1.3% the biggest decline since 2010. The 0.7% drop in finished goods was the major cause for the decline in the PPI. Economists forecast a 0.4% rose in Producer prices this time.
  9. US UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 14:00. The University of Michigan’s survey showed Consumer sentiment declined in May to 90.7 from 95.9 in April, the lowest reading since November 2014. Consumers were more concerned about current economic conditions as well as the future. However, the Conference Board, a business group, reported that its index of consumer moral showed mild improvement in May. From 94.3 to 95.4. Nevertheless, The Michigan index is well above last year’s 81.9 indicating a pickup in consumption. Consumer sentiment is expected to grow to 91.3 in June.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

AUDIO - Always Something to Trade with Michael Young

Former CME floor trader, Michael Young joins Merlin to discuss how he is trading these sideways markets and finding great trading opportunities.
Mr. Young takes a look at Natural Gas, and walks listeners through how he is trading it, and what his strategies are going forward. The duo stress the importance of knowing the instruments you are trading, and having a plan at all times!!


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

Why EURUSD May Not Reach Parity Any Time Soon (based on actionforex article)

Technical Developments to Watch:

  • EUR/USD still below key trend line resistance at 1.1380
  • GBP/USD testing key support at 1.5190
  • USD/JPY at a 13-year high, bias bullish above 124.15
  • NZD/USD in play, potential for another leg lower if RBNZ cuts rates



  • EURUSD exploded higher early last week before but gave back most of its gains on Thur. & Fri.
  • MACD and Slow Stochastics show balanced, two-way trade
  • Key support sits in the mid-1.0800s

EURUSD had a rollercoaster ride of a week, spiking nearly 500 pips trough-to-peak before giving back over 300 pips in the wake of Friday's strong NFP report. Meanwhile, both the MACD and Slow Stochastics are now in neutral territory, signaling balanced, two-way trade. Traders are clearly trying to sort out last week's volatile price action, but from a longer-term perspective, the one-year bearish trend line perfectly capped last week's rally, so we're inclined to give the bears the benefit of the doubt as long as EURUSD holds below 1.1380.


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis, June 8 -12, 2015 -Forecast (adapted from fxempire article)

The dollar got a lift on Friday as official data showed US businesses accelerated hiring and raised wages at a faster pace last month in a fresh sign the country’s economy is rebounding from the winter stall.

In a report that gives the Federal Reserve more reason to move toward an interest rate hike in the coming months, the Labor Department said Friday that the economy pumped out 280,000 jobs in May, far more than expected and well above the past year’s pace of 251,000 a month.

Meanwhile, the euro was down over 1 percent against the U.S. dollar as Greek debt crisis intensified.

Athens failed to repay a 300 million euros (333 million U.S. dollars) loan installment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Friday. On Thursday, the central bank of Greece formally requested the IMF to “bundle” its four payments due to the IMF this month amounting to approximately 1.5 billion euros (about 1.67 billion U. S. dollars) into one.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD: Outlooks For The Coming Week - Morgan Stanley (based on efxnews article)

"EUR: Draghi Gives EUR Legs. Bearish.

The ECB did not push back against higher yields in the Euro Area, which could offer some near term support to EUR on the crosses. Should risk appetite fade, this could bolster EUR even further, as many European equity holdings are currency hedged, and therefore short EUR positions would need to be bought back as equities were sold. Once this positioning becomes clearer, we would look to sell EUR, as our medium term view on EUR has not changed."

USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD: Outlooks For The Coming Week - Morgan Stanley
  • www.efxnews.com
Focus of the day: "USD: EM and G10 Divergence. Bullish. We remain USD bulls but recognize that USD could see some correction against EUR in the near term as European yields head higher on the back of reflationary signs. This could spill over to mild weakness against other G10, but we remain bullish against EM. Higher volatility will reduce...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
110880
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD forecast for the week of June 8, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)

The EUR/USD pair initially rallied during the course of the week, but then pullback in order to form a massive shooting star like candle. However, we broke the top of the hammer from the previous week, and did stay above there. Because of that we feel that there is bullish pressure underneath, and that this market will continue to go higher. We have no interest in selling from a longer-term perspective, but recognize that short-term buyers will probably continue to come back into this market again and again. If we can get above the 1.15 level, we are long-term buyers.