EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 15.03 - 22.03: Breakdown Continuing or Market Rally Started?

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.14 11:19

Forex Weekly Outlook March 16-20

The dollar stormed the board, with the euro and the pound standing out as the biggest losers. The Fed decision is the key event in a week that also features rate decision in Japan and Switzerland, employment data from the UK and the US and many more. These are the major events on FX calendar. Join us as we check on the highlights of this week.

The US job market demonstrated renewed strength with a 36,000 fall in the number of jobless claims, reaching 289,000. However, retail sales disappointed, dropping 0.6% in February as harsh weather reduced sales and affected growth in the first quarter. Also consumer confidence slipped. Will the US economy shake off winter slowdown? For the US dollar it did not really matter.  EUR/USD reached levels last seen over 12 years ago, with parity seeming closer and also the previously strong pound gave in. The Aussie was supported by jobs data, the kiwi by an upbeat central bank and the loonie was hit by oil. Let’s start,

1. Mario Draghi Speaks: Monday, 18:45.  ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt. He may talk to the ECB’s new QE plan aimed to spur growth in the euro member countries by injecting 1.1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) into the economy. Market volatility is expected. In his previous speech, Draghi hurt the euro: he reiterated that reaching the stronger growth forecasts depends on implementation of current programs.
2. Japan rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted to maintain its monetary policy in its February meeting and continue implementing its plan to increase monetary base to an annual pace of JPY 80 trillion. This step will help ensure the Central Bank’s inflation target of 2.0%. The BOJ noted the economy continued its moderate recovery with a pickup in exports. Consumer spending also remained strong due to rising employment and better wages. Inflation expectations remain positive despite the decline in oil prices. Rates are expected to remain unchanged this time.
3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German analyst and investor sentimentjumped in February its highest level in a year, reaching 53, following 48.4 in January boosted by the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program. However, the Greek debt problem and the Ukraine crisis weighed on the economic outlook. Economists expected a higher leap to 55. The German government forecasts growth of 1.5% in 2015. Sentiment among German analysts and investors is forecasted to improve to 58.9 in March.
4. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. Building Permits weakened further in January reaching 1.053 million, dropping 0.7% form the rate of 1.07 posted in December. Economists expected a rise to 1.08 million. Other housing figures were also disappointing such as a 2% decline in housing starts and low homebuilder sentiment. Housing recovery remains slow and prices outpace wage growth. The number of permits is expected to grow to1.07 million.
5. UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. Britain’s labor market continued to improve in Januarywith a bigger than expected decline in the number of jobless applications. The number of unemployed declined by 38,600 in January after a 35,800 drop in December, indicating job creation is rising. Economists expected a smaller decline of 25,200 in January. According to the ILO measure, unemployment fell by 97,000 in the three months to December, lowering the unemployment rate to 5.7%. Another decline of 31,000 is expected in the number of jobless applications.
6. US rate decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30.  The Federal Reserve maintained their monetary policy in January, leaving the door open for a rate hike around June 2015, after more than six years of near zero rates. The Fed admitted that inflation weakened considerably due to the recent drop in oil prices. The members are watching for economic developments to see what happens. Job gains continue to grow and the unemployment rate has also declined closing in on its prerecession level, however, wage growth remains subdued as companies continue to find an abundant supply of potential employees. The rate is expected to remain at 0.25%.
7. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand economy boosted growth in the third quarter expanding 1.0%, the strongest gain in 15 years. This impressive figure was preceded by a 0.7% expansion in the second quarter. Economists expected a growth rate of 0.7%. On a yearly base, growth remained unchanged from the second quarter reaching 3.2%. New Zealand is expected to expand by 0.8% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
8. Switzerland rate decision: Thursday, 8:30. The Swiss National Bank rocked markets on January, while deciding to abandon its three-year-old currency cap of 1.20 Swiss francs to the euro, sending the currency high against the euro sending stocks down. Being an export reliant, 40% of which going to the euro zone endangered many Swiss companies. To balance the Swiss franc, the SNB cut its interest rate taking it further down into negative territory of -0.75% following -0.25% in the previous month. No change in rates is expected.
9. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits declined more than expected last week, reaching 289,000. The 36,000 fall offers further evidence that the labor market is strengthening. Economists expected a higher figure of 306,000. The four-week moving average fell 3,750 to 302,250 last week. The NFP report showed a 295,000 job gain in February and a 6-1/2-year low of 5.5% unemployment rate. February marked the 12th straight month that employment gains have been above 200,000, the longest such run since 1994. The number of new claims for unemployment benefits is predicted to rise to 297,000 this week.
10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area fell to 5.2 in February, following 6.3 in January, while economists expected a rise to 8.8. However, despite the three months of decline, manufacturing activity still remains positive pointing to growth. The outlook showed 55% of companies were optimistic regarding future demand, while 20% reported a decline. Economists believe the Philly Fed is affected by seasonal adjustment factors in winter and in fall. Expecting a boost in the spring and summer seasons. Manufacturing activity is expected to7.3 in March.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.15 07:27

EUR/USD forecast for the week of March 16, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair broke down during the course of the week slicing through the 1.05 level at the end of the Friday session. Because of this, looks like the market is ready to continue going much lower, and a break down below the bottom of the range should send this market looking for the parity level given enough time. Ultimately, if we rally at this point in time it should just simply be thought of as value in the US dollar as it is the favored currency by Forex traders around the world.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.16 07:14

EUR/USD weekly outlook: March 16 - 20 (based on investing.com article)

The euro dropped to 12-year lows against the dollar on Friday as mounting expectations for higher U.S. interest rates bolstered investor demand for the greenback.

EUR/USD hit lows of 1.0462, the weakest since January 9, 2003 before pulling back to 1.0496 in late trade, still down 1.31% for the day.

The single currency had already weakened broadly this year after the European Central Bank unveiled a trillion-euro quantitative easing program in January.

The euro turned sharply lower after the bank started asset purchases on Monday, pushing euro area bond yields to new lows.

Lower bond yields make the single currency less attractive to investors at a time when expectations are building that the Fed could start rising interest rates mid-year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, advanced 1.22% to 100.32 late Friday, a level last reached in April 2003.

Sentiment on the euro was also hit by uncertainty over Greece’s future in the euro zone, after euro area finance ministers rejected proposed economic reforms put forward by Athens in exchange for more loans.

The euro was also lower against the pound, with EUR/GBP at 0.7116, holding above the seven-year low of 0.7013 set on Wednesday. The common currency fell to a 20-month low against the yen, with EUR/JPY hitting lows of 126.91 before easing back to 127.36 at the close.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing their attention on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement to see if it would drop its reference to being patient before raising rates. Tuesday’s ZEW report on German economic sentiment will also be closely watched.

Monday, March 16

• In the euro zone, Germanys Bundesbank is to publish its monthly report.
• The U.S. is to produce reports on industrial production and manufacturing activity in the New York region, as well as private sector data on the housing market.

Tuesday, March 17

• In the euro zone, the ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment. The euro area is also to release revised data on consumer inflation.
• The U.S. is to report on building permits and housing starts.

Wednesday, March 18

• The Fed is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic projection and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to hold what will be a closely watched a post-policy meeting press conference.

Thursday, March 19

• The U.S. is to release reports on jobless claims, the current account and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.16 07:31

EURUSD Daily Pivot Point Support / Resistance (based on dailyfx twitter account)

Resistance	Support
1.0600	1.0428
1.0703	1.0359
1.0875	1.0187

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 15.03 - 22.03: Breakdown Continuing or Market Rally Started?

newdigital, 2015.03.16 16:39

This is 1.0461 ket support for now (for D1 and W1 timeframes):

But it is still the primary bearish concerning Ichimoku system (see charts above), Parabolic system and Brainwashing system (all those systems are elaborated on this forum with free to download):

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.17 05:57

EUR/USD rallies slightly on Monday, ahead of critical Fed meeting (based on nasdaq article)

The euro edged slightly higher on Monday, slamming the brakes on its rapid depreciation against the U.S. dollar ahead of a highly-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting later this week.

EUR/USD gained 0.70% or 0.0073 to 1.0569 in U.S. afternoon trading. The pair fell below 1.05 at last week's close, as the start of the European Central Bank's €60 billion a month quantitative easing program coincided with expectations of an interest rate hike from the Fed. Since the start of the year, the pair is down roughly 10%.

Last week analysts from Deutsche Bank (XETRA:DBKGn) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) both revised their timetables on when the euro could reach parity against the dollar, moving up the dates from previous forecasts. Deutsche Bank even predicted that the euro could fall to 0.85 against the dollar by 2017. On Monday, Alan Ruskin head of foreign exchange strategy for Deutsche Bank, went one step further.

Speaking with CNBC's Power Lunch, Ruskin said he thinks it is possible the euro could reach a historic low against the dollar of 0.82. The euro hasn't reached a level that low since 2002.

"If you think of what's driving the euro, a lot of this has been hedging from foreigners who've held euro bonds and euro equities," Ruskin told CNBC. "I think that it will slow somewhere near parity."

The Fed could remove its reference to "remaining patient," from its minutes when the Federal Open Market Committee stages a two-day meeting this week, beginning on Wednesday. The reference typically indicates that it will start raising interest rates at either of its next two meetings. It has been six years since the U.S. central bank has increased rates, which have remained near zero since the Financial Crisis.

Elsewhere, Greece and its euro zone creditors appeared to be far apart in negotiations concerning the reform measures Athens must employ to extend a critical bailout package. Greece prime minister Alexis Tsipras appears unwilling to agree to some of the austerity measures required by the euro zone in order to strike a deal.

"Whatever obstacles we may encounter in our negotiating effort, we will not return to the policies of austerity," Tsipras told Greece newspaper Ethnos.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.17 18:20

EURUSD Uptrend Continues As Dollar Retreats

• EURUSD rebounds, trades above 1.06.
• Eurozone core CPI confirmed at 0.7% YoY in February.
• ZEW German investor confidence climbs to 13-month high in March.

The EURUSD advanced for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as core Eurozone inflation was confirmed higher in February, while German investor confidence soared to a 13-month high in March.

The EURUSD climbed 0.45 percent to 1.0617, easing off an intraday high of 1.0651. The pair is testing the initial resistance at 1.0636. A clean break above this level would lead to 1.0704. On the downside, near-term support is at 1.0484.

In economic data, Eurozone consumer prices declined in February, the European Commission confirmed on Tuesday. Annual CPI in the 19-member currency zone fell 0.3 percent, compared to 0.6 percent in January.

Energy prices increased 1.6 percent in February but were down 7.9 percent compared to year-ago levels. Global crude prices are forecast to remain under pressure in the short-run as the supply glut intensifies.

So-called core inflation, which strips away volatile goods such as food and energy, rose at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in February, compared to 0.6 percent the previous month.

The European Commission also said Eurozone employment rose 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 0.9 percent year-on-year, adding further evidence the currency region was slowly gaining momentum.

In a separate report on Tuesday the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) said investor sentiment in Germany reached a 13-month high in March, a sign Europe’s largest economy had turned a corner.

The closely monitored investor confidence index rose 1.8 points to 54.8 in March. That was the fifth consecutive monthly gain and the highest level since February 2014. The euro-wide investor sentiment index surged nearly ten points to 62.4.

“Economic sentiment in Germany remains at a high level. In particular, the continuing positive development of the domestic economy confirms the expectations of the experts,” said ZEW president Clemens Fuest in a statement.

He added, “At the same time, limited progress is being made with regard to solving the Ukraine conflict and the sovereign debt crisis in Greece. This has a dampening effect on sentiment.”

“It’s now, first of all, about what the Greek government will implement in the necessary reform steps that it has promised,” said Michael Grosse-Brömer, who serves as the parliamentary whip of Chancellor Angela Merkel. “They must now finally deliver and not make a new proposal every other week.”

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.18 07:40

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Short Entry Sought on Bounce (based on dailyfx article)

• EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
• Support: 1.0408, 1.0060, 0.9713
• Resistance:1.0623, 1.0796, 1.0970

A Euro recovery against the US Dollar may be brewing against the US Dollar after prices formed a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Positive RSI divergence bolsters the case for an upside scenario. Near-term resistance is at 1.0623, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1.0796. Alternatively, a drop below the 76.4% Fib at 1.0408 opens the door for a challenge of the 100% expansion at 1.0060.

Our long-term outlook envisions Euro weakness. With that in mind, we will treat any on-coming upswing as corrective and look to enter short once signs of a renewed turn lower emerge. In the meantime, we will remain on the sidelines.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 15.03 - 22.03: Breakdown Continuing or Market Rally Started?

newdigital, 2015.03.18 15:18

This is triangle price pattern for EURUSD H4 timeframe:

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.18 16:49

EURUSD Pre-FOMC Pivot Values - Breakouts Occur Above R4, and Below S4 Pivots (based on dailyfx article)

The EURUSD has opened Wednesdays trading range bound, trading between pivot support and resistance. Current range bound conditions are not surprising as many traders are waiting on today’s FOMC even prior to taking positions on markets. Currently price has traded off pivot resistance at 1.0624, but has yet to test range support found at 1.0569. These values complete the current range valued at 55 pips.

During the FOMC event, any surprises may cause the EURUSD to breakout. Traders should watch the S4 pivot at 1.0541. This would signal a potential return to USD strength and a resumption of the pair’s current long term trend. Conversely if price breaks above the R4 pivot at 1.0651, it would suggest price is beginning a larger counter trend move, creating a new higher high.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

newdigital, 2015.03.18 17:14

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.18 19:10

2015-03-18 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.25%
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future

==========

Press Release

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and export growth has weakened. Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. This change in the forward guidance does not indicate that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase in the target range.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.19 12:05

EURUSD surges after the FOMC decision

EURUSD flew approximately 400 pips higher after the Fed, despite dropping “patient”, lowered its interest rate trajectory and downgraded its view on economic growth and inflation. EURUSD moved above the near-term downtrend line taken from back the peak of the 26th of February to hit resistance at 1.1045 (R2), close to the 61.8% retracement level of the 26th of February – 13th of March decline. Subsequently the pair retreated to trade below 1.08000. Although an astonishing rally, it is far from a trend reversal signal.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.19 15:39

2015-03-19 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

• past data is 5.2
• forecast data is 7.2
• actual data is 5.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CHF in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

==========

Philly Fed Index Unexpectedly Shows Modest Drop In March

Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region has increased at a modest pace in the month of March, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, although the index of regional manufacturing activity unexpectedly showed a slight decrease.

The Philly Fed said its diffusion index of current activity edged down to 5.0 in March from 5.2 in February. While a positive reading indicates continued growth in manufacturing activity, economists had expected the index to climb to 7.0.

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

EURUSD, M5, 2015.03.19

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5

EURUSD M5: 32 pips price movement by USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news event

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 15.03 - 22.03: Breakdown Continuing or Market Rally Started?

newdigital, 2015.03.19 18:25

D1 timeframe: the price is ranging between 1.0461 support and 1.1041 resistance levels:

W1 timeframe: support level for this timeframe is 1.0461 as well



Seems, 1.0461 is the key support level for the next week for this pair.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.19 20:10

Euro Correction Already Over? intraday volatility continues (based on dailyfx article)

The question on everybody’s mind after yesterday’s Fed inspired squeeze on USD long positons is whether that was it and the dollar can now resume higher or does the correction have more room to run? Judging by the action this morning it seems the market is scared of missing out on the next leg higher in the Greenbck as several pairs have already returned to pre-FOMC levels. Only time will tell whether this is the case, though it would be unusual to not see at least a period of minor consolidation first after such extreme volatility. In the euro, the 1.0550 area looks key with traction under this zone needed to confirm that a downside resumption is indeed underway. A move back over 1.0920 would warn that the correction has more room to run.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.20 06:47

EURUSD: A Crazy 900-Pip "Roundtrip" (based on elliottwave article)

This week, we saw exactly what Jim had warned about: the craziest volatility in euro-dollar (EURUSD) we've seen in years. To be exact, last time EURUSD jumped 400-500 pips in one day was back in 2008. But the latest price action topped that: Not only did the euro rally almost 500 pips on Wednesday, but on Thursday it gave up almost all of those gains -- for an almost 900-pip "roundtrip":

In other words, bulls and bears got their clocks cleaned. All that's left now is confusion -- in both camps.   While it may seem that the market "is out to get you" on days like these, the market doesn't have vendettas with anyone. It's simply doing what it should: taking money from the weak hands and handing it over to the strong. As Jim puts it,   "The markets are doing what they are supposed to be doing: inflicting the most pain on the most number of people. The majority always gets caught on the wrong side at big reversals. Always."

"At some point, everyone is in the same trade, like they are now in the euro short. Then it reaches the point of exhaustion: There is nobody left to sell the euro. Then somebody will start covering -- and before you know it, it's like Black Friday at your local Wal-Mart: Everyone is trying to squeeze through the same door at the same time. The coming EURUSD rally will be like that."
Jim Martens, Editor of Currency Pro Service

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

BRAINWASHING SYSTEM

newdigital, 2015.03.20 08:02

EURUSD movement for different timeframes according to this Brainwashing system

---

We know that this system was designed for trading and not for evaluation the market condition - there is no such a line which is dividing the chart onto bearish zone and bullish zone (this line exists only in Ichimoku systems and in SMA/EMA systems). But anyway, we can say something in general about the following:

• uptrend/downtrend continuing with 'how many pips' by movement
• correction started
• etc

So, let's evaluation EURUSD pair

---

H1 timeframe

As we see from H1 chart - it is just uptrend started on flat way. This buy signal is not a valid (value of iTrend indicator is below iTrend level) so we can understand this uptrend as a correcton within the bearish trend in general. This bearish trend was good and the system made

---

H4 timeframe

Same for H4 timeframe - uptrend just started with no valid signal to buy.

---

D1 timeframe



Downtrend is continuing with 1,550 pips in profit for now (4 digit pips).

---

W1 timeframe



Downtrend is continuing

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.03.20 19:22

The euro is going bananas (based on businessinsider article)

The euro is climbing against the dollar again on Friday, rising more than 1.7% to as high as $1.085 as of around 12:40 pm ET.

The euro spiked against the dollar when the Fed's latest decisions came out, as the US central bank looked less likely to hike rates in June (which would typically strengthen the dollar). 

As it stands so far, the euro's depreciation bottomed out five days ago, below $1.05. A lot of people are still expecting parity by the end of 2015.