if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for CHF in our case)
[CHF - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations. It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
Swiss retail sales declined in January after recovering in the prior
month, provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office showed
Excluding fuel, retail sales dropped 0.3 percent from last year, reversing a 1.9 percent rise in December.
of food, drinks and tobacco registered an annual increase of 1.4
percent, while non-food sector sales declined 1.4 percent.
sales fell by real 2.1 percent month-on-month in January, reversing the
1 percent rise in the prior month. This was the first fall in four
EUR/USD rallies slightly on Monday, ahead of critical Fed meeting (based on nasdaq article)
The euro edged slightly higher on Monday,
slamming the brakes on its rapid depreciation against the U.S.
dollar ahead of a highly-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting later
EUR/USD gained 0.70% or 0.0073 to 1.0569 in U.S. afternoon
trading. The pair fell below 1.05 at last week's close, as the
start of the European Central Bank's €60 billion a month
quantitative easing program coincided with expectations of an
interest rate hike from the Fed. Since the start of the year, the
pair is down roughly 10%.
Last week analysts from Deutsche Bank (XETRA:DBKGn) and Goldman
Sachs (NYSE:GS) both revised their timetables on when the euro
could reach parity against the dollar, moving up the dates from
previous forecasts. Deutsche Bank even predicted that the euro
could fall to 0.85 against the dollar by 2017. On Monday, Alan
Ruskin head of foreign exchange strategy for Deutsche Bank, went
one step further.
Speaking with CNBC's Power Lunch, Ruskin said he thinks it is
possible the euro could reach a historic low against the dollar of
0.82. The euro hasn't reached a level that low since 2002.
"If you think of what's driving the euro, a lot of this has been
hedging from foreigners who've held euro bonds and euro equities,"
Ruskin told CNBC. "I think that it will slow somewhere near
The Fed could remove its reference to "remaining patient," from
its minutes when the Federal Open Market Committee stages a two-day
meeting this week, beginning on Wednesday. The reference typically
indicates that it will start raising interest rates at either of
its next two meetings. It has been six years since the U.S. central
bank has increased rates, which have remained near zero since the
Elsewhere, Greece and its euro zone creditors appeared to be far
apart in negotiations concerning the reform measures Athens must
employ to extend a critical bailout package. Greece prime minister
Alexis Tsipras appears unwilling to agree to some of the austerity
measures required by the euro zone in order to strike a deal.
"Whatever obstacles we may encounter in our negotiating effort,
we will not return to the policies of austerity," Tsipras told
Greece newspaper Ethnos.
[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent
meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that
influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
RBA considered cutting interest rates, decided to wait for more data
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s
minutes from its policy meeting earlier this month showed us that
members considered loosening monetary further this month, but it was
decided that more data was needed and it would take some time for the
economy to respond to an earlier cut in the OCR. It’s also clear that
the RBA is nervously watching the housing market; it is acutely aware
that softer monetary policy is helping to fuel the red-hot residential housing market in Sydney and, to a lesser extent, Melbourne.
The key lines from the minutes are:
On interest rates
On the housing market
EURUSD Uptrend Continues As Dollar Retreats
EURUSD advanced for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, as core
Eurozone inflation was confirmed higher in February, while German
investor confidence soared to a 13-month high in March.
climbed 0.45 percent to 1.0617, easing off an intraday high of 1.0651.
The pair is testing the initial resistance at 1.0636. A clean break
above this level would lead to 1.0704. On the downside, near-term
support is at 1.0484.
In economic data, Eurozone consumer prices declined in February, the
European Commission confirmed on Tuesday. Annual CPI in the 19-member
currency zone fell 0.3 percent, compared to 0.6 percent in January.
prices increased 1.6 percent in February but were down 7.9 percent
compared to year-ago levels. Global crude prices are forecast to remain
under pressure in the short-run as the supply glut intensifies.
core inflation, which strips away volatile goods such as food and
energy, rose at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in February, compared to
0.6 percent the previous month.
The European Commission also said
Eurozone employment rose 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter and 0.9
percent year-on-year, adding further evidence the currency region was
slowly gaining momentum.
In a separate report on Tuesday the
Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) said investor sentiment in
Germany reached a 13-month high in March, a sign Europe’s largest
economy had turned a corner.
The closely monitored investor
confidence index rose 1.8 points to 54.8 in March. That was the fifth
consecutive monthly gain and the highest level since February 2014. The
euro-wide investor sentiment index surged nearly ten points to 62.4.
sentiment in Germany remains at a high level. In particular, the
continuing positive development of the domestic economy confirms the
expectations of the experts,” said ZEW president Clemens Fuest in a
He added, “At the same time, limited progress is being
made with regard to solving the Ukraine conflict and the sovereign debt
crisis in Greece. This has a dampening effect on sentiment.”“It’s now, first of all, about what the Greek government will implement
in the necessary reform steps that it has promised,” said Michael
Grosse-Brömer, who serves as the parliamentary whip of Chancellor Angela
Merkel. “They must now finally deliver and not make a new proposal
every other week.”
AUDIO - Talking Stocks with Gabe Velazquez
Master trader and coach, Gabe Velazques joins Merlin in
studio to talk about his current Pro Trader class at Online Trading
Academy. The duo talk about how the markets have evolved and created the
need for understanding multiple asset classes to help trading
performance. They also stress the importance of a trading plan and
journaling. Stocks covered in this show: QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM, NFLX, USO
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Short Entry Sought on Bounce (based on dailyfx article)
A Euro recovery against the US Dollar
may be brewing against the US Dollar after prices formed a bullish
Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Positive RSI divergence bolsters the
case for an upside scenario. Near-term resistance is at 1.0623, the
61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing
basis exposing the 50% level at 1.0796. Alternatively, a drop below the
76.4% Fib at 1.0408 opens the door for a challenge of the 100% expansion
Our long-term outlook
envisions Euro weakness. With that in mind, we will treat any on-coming
upswing as corrective and look to enter short once signs of a renewed
turn lower emerge. In the meantime, we will remain on the sidelines.
Trading the News: GBP Jobless Claims Change (based on dailyfx article)
Another 30.0K decline in U.K. Jobless Claims paired with a hawkish Bank
of England (BoE) Minutes may spark a near-term rebound in GBP/USD should
the fundamental developments boost interest rate expectations.
What’s Expected:Why Is This Event Important:
At the same time, Average Weekly Earnings are projected to increase an
annualized 2.2% after climbing 2.1% in January, and a marked expansion
in household earnings may encourage BoE Governor Mark Carney to
normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the central bank
anticipates a more sustainable recovery in the U.K economy.However, the slowdown in building activity along with the pullback in
business outputs may drag on hiring, and a dismal labor report may push
Governor Carney to further delay the normalization cycle in an effort to
encourage a stronger recovery.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: Claims Slip 30.0K or More Accompanied by Stronger Wages
EURUSD Pre-FOMC Pivot Values - Breakouts Occur Above R4, and Below S4 Pivots (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD has opened Wednesdays trading range
bound, trading between pivot support and resistance. Current range bound
conditions are not surprising as many traders are waiting on today’s
FOMC even prior to taking positions on markets. Currently price has
traded off pivot resistance at 1.0624, but has yet to test range support
found at 1.0569. These values complete the current range valued at 55
During the FOMC event, any surprises may cause the
EURUSD to breakout. Traders should watch the S4 pivot at 1.0541. This
would signal a potential return to USD strength and a resumption of the pair’s current long term trend. Conversely if price breaks above the R4 pivot at 1.0651, it would suggest price is beginning a larger counter trend move, creating a new higher high.
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the
Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation
- traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates
will change in the future
“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor
market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a
lower unemployment rate. A range of labor market indicators suggests
that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish.
Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have
boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is
advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and
export growth has weakened. Inflation has declined further below the
Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy
prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low;
survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster
maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with
appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a
moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward
levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The
Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic
activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is
anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but
the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over
the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory
effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The
Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.
In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee
will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of
maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take
into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor
market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation
expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.
Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an
increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely
at the April FOMC meeting. The Committee anticipates that it will be
appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it
has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably
confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over
the medium term. This change in the forward guidance does not indicate
that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase in
the target range.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting
principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency
mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of
rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by
keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable
levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation,
it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of
maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently
anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near
mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time,
warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee
views as normal in the longer run.”
The most important thing to realize is that when a full blown bear
market starts virtually all stocks and commodities drop including gold,
silver and oil. Knowing that, investors must be aware that when the
stock market starts its bear market the fear will rise and investors
will inevitably sell their holdings and this means we could see gold and
oil continue to fall much further from these levels before a true
bottom is in place.
Is this time different than the 2008/09 bear market? Yes, this time
we have possible wars starting, oil pipelines overseas being cut off,
counties and currencies failing and even negative bond yields in some
parts of the world – it’s a mess to say the least. There are a lot of
things unfolding, most seem to be negative for the economy.
The currency problems and possible war breakout will be bullish for
gold and oil. So if a bear market starts in equities, and a war or
currency fails gold and oil should rally while stocks fall.
But if we don’t have those sever crisis’ then if gold and oil break
below their critical support level which is the red line on the charts
and a bear market in stocks start you do not want to be long stocks or