Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD
Forecasts

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for US Dollar, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD

1 February 2015, 21:11
Sergey Golubev
Sergey Golubev
10
419

US Dollar Forecast– NFPs and the PCE inflation indicator will further stir hawkish Fed expectations, but the theme may be mature
The net change in payrolls isn’t nearly as important as the ‘qualitative’ figures. The jobless rate has already touched past year milestones for rate hikes – a few years ago, then Chairman Ben Bernanke tied a first rate hike to an unemployment rate of under 6.5 percent. It is currently 5.6 percent. Perhaps the inflation aspect of the labor data is the lynchpin. Wage growth has struggled to catch traction. A particularly weak showing here, on the other hand, could reinforce the more distant timeline the market has on hikes and instead lead to a downgrade in FOMC forecasts at the March meeting.




Japanese Yen Forecast – Disappointing US economic data enough to keep pressure on USDJPY
The correlation between the USDJPY and the Nikkei 225 index has weakened notably as of late; recent gains in Japanese equities have not been enough to lift the exchange rate. Yet a further rise in equity market volatility would likely restore said link, and we’ll keep a close eye on global equity markets as the US S&P 500 registers its second-consecutive monthly decline. Continued losses could be enough to send the USDJPY through key support.




British Pound Forecast – Pound May Rise as 4Q UK GDP Data Boosts BOE Rate Hike Bets
GBP/USD may continue to carve a string of lower-highs in the week ahead as market participants speculate the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy ahead of its U.K. counterpart, and the pair remains at risk for a further decline over the near-term as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely preserves the bearish momentum carried over from the previous year.




Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar May Bounce if RBA Opts Against Dovish Posture
Realized data outcomes have also increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts since the last RBA outing in December. If this encourages the RBA to look through near-term price declines and fall in with the Fed/BOE side of the argument – catching markets off-guard with another neutral policy statement – a swift Aussie Dollar rebound is likely in the cards.




#dollar index, fundamental analysis