Last week, major central banks announced their decisions. On December 18, the ECB left interest rates unchanged and confirmed that future steps will depend on key macroeconomic data. On the same day, the Bank of England cut its key rate from 4.0% to 3.75% due to slowing inflation. On December 19, the Bank of Japan took another step toward policy normalisation, raising its rate to 0.75%. Markets reacted calmly to the first two decisions, while the BoJ move triggered a sharp rise in USD/JPY.
💶 EUR/USD
The most notable move for EUR/USD came on December 16, when the pair jumped sharply to 1.1804. On that day, the US released a delayed but large set of labour market and consumer data. Together with a reassessment of Fed rate expectations, these releases increased pressure on the US dollar. Later, market volatility eased, and the pair ended the week near 1.1708. Moving averages still show a moderately bullish bias, but momentum is weakening due to low pre-holiday liquidity. Another attempt to rise toward 1.1760-1.1800 is possible, followed by a pullback to 1.1650-1.1680 and then to 1.1575-1.1615. A clear break above 1.1800 would open the way to 1.1900-1.1915 and then to 1.2000.
₿ BTC/USD
Bitcoin traded in a sideways range of 84,400-90,365 throughout the week and finished Friday near the middle of the range at 87,790. Indicators point to a cautious, slightly bearish mood, but the overall structure still looks like consolidation rather than a clear trend. A breakout attempt above resistance at 89,500-90,365 is possible, with the next target at 93,125-94,600. If this attempt fails, a pullback toward 84,400-85,100 may follow, with further supports at 83,800 and 80,540.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
On December 16, Brent fell to 58.49 dollars per barrel, its lowest level in more than six months. Despite the weaker dollar, the market treated oil as a demand-sensitive asset rather than a currency hedge. The week ended near 60.12. The 60.00 level is likely to act as a key support and resistance area, where bulls and bears will compete. Oil remains under pressure from demand uncertainty and year-end positioning. Brent may correct toward 61.50-63.00, followed by a risk of a return to 60.00-59.00 and possibly to the yearly low at 58.17. In case of stable growth, the next bullish target is 63.90-64.00, where horizontal and descending resistance lines meet.
🥇 XAU/USD
Within its uptrend, gold faced strong resistance near 4,350. An attempt on December 18 to update the all-time high failed, and after rising to 4,375, XAU/USD reversed and closed near 4,339 dollars per ounce. Gold keeps a stable bullish trend, but a short-term correction toward 4,300 is possible, followed by growth to 4,400-4,450 and then to 4,500. A break below 4,250 would temporarily cancel the bullish scenario and signal a risk of a deeper correction toward 4,170-4,200.
📈 Conclusion
The coming week is expected to be marked by low holiday liquidity and a limited number of important macroeconomic releases. The main focus will be on US data, including the Q3 GDP update and PCE inflation, scheduled for December 23-24.
The baseline outlook for EUR/USD is neutral with a moderately bullish bias while the pair stays above 1.1650. For BTC/USD and Brent, the outlook is neutral to mildly bearish. For XAU/USD, the outlook remains bullish, with buying interest on pullbacks toward 4,250-4,280.
