EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 30.11 - 07.12: Ranging Bearish With 1.2360 Support

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.01 16:28

• past data is 59.0
• forecast data is 57.8
• actual data is 58.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for ГЫВ in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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U.S. Manufacturing Index Falls Less Than Expected In November

Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector grew at a slightly slower rate in the month of November, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday, although the index of activity in the sector fell by much less than anticipated.

The ISM said its purchasing managers index edged down to 58.7 in November from 59.0 in October, with a reading above 50 indicating continued growth in the manufacturing sector. Economists had expected the index to drop to a reading of 57.8.

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EURUSD, M5, 2014.12.01

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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI news event

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.02 07:06

EUR/USD extends rejection to 200 hours MA at 1.2470 (based on fxstreet article)

The Euro extended its rejection of the 1.2500 area against the dollar an now the pair is testing its 200 hours MA level at 1.2470.

Earlier in the day, the EUR/USD rallied to test the 1.250 while reaching an intraday high of 1.2505. However, the couple found a selling interest that sent it back to to prices below 1.2500. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2475, up 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2508 and low at 1.2419.

The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

In the long term, the EUR/USD seems to be in the bearish trend as Morgan Stanley commented that "Selling EUR/USD is" their "best trade for 2015." The banks favors "selling EUR/USD, targeting 1.12 for end-2015.”

However, the story seems different in the short term as pair is trading higher on Monday. According to Pablo Piovano, "the low-1.2500s yet remains quite a tough barrier amongst EUR-bulls, although the ECB meeting on Thursday carries the potential for either a breakout of that resistance zone or a deep retracement to test recent lows in the 1.2360 region."

Below the 200-hour MA level of 1.2470, the EUR/USD will find supports at 1.2460, 1.2425 and 1.2415. To the upside, resistances are at 1.2500, 1.2520 and 1.2530.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 30.11 - 07.12: Ranging Bearish With 1.2360 Support

newdigital, 2014.12.03 10:34

This is updated situation for EURUSD D1 timeframe:

• D1 price is breaking 1.2360 support level on open bar
• If D1 price will break 1.2360 support on close bar (we may see it tomorrow only because D1 = 1 day sorry) so it may be good breakdown (good to open sell trade for example)

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.03 10:38

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newdigital, 2014.12.04 05:45

Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs (based on dailyfx article)

• EURUSD Weekly opening range break keeps near-term focus lower
• Shorts at risk heading into interim support / key event risk
  
  
  

Technical Outlook

• EURUSD continues to respect TL resistance off the October high
• Initial support at 2012 low week close 1.2315 (now testing)
• Break eyes susbsequent support objectives at 1.2202, 1.2145 & 1.2095
• Key resistance now at monthly/weekly opening range high- 1.2500
• Daily RSI holding sub 50- bearish
• Momentum resistance trigger pending- breach to mark correction
• Event Risk Ahead: ECB Rate Decision tomorrow morning & US NFPs on Friday