EUR/USD Nears Week Long Range Break; JPY-crosses Continue Run (based on dailyfx article)
Event risk is at its lowest point of the week on Tuesday, but it's shaping up to be the 'calm before the storm' if anything. Numerous 'medium' and 'high' rated events will help unleash volatility starting tomorrow, including the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the November US labor market report on Friday.
of then, we're starting to see the ranges that persisted around the
holiday trading conditions last week start to bend, just not yet break.
One of these instances is occurring in EURUSD, where the closing highs
and lows on H4 charts going back to November 27 are starting to be
Elsewhere, the big theme at present is the ongoing Japanese Yen depreciation. USDJPY's triangle/flag going back to November 17 is on the verge of cracking higher; and the momentum in EURJPY and GBPJPY sees continuation higher as well, irrespective of event risk.
AUDIO - The Dollar, Gold and Oil with John O'Donnell (based on fxstreet article)
The story of the year has been the drop in oil prices and its impact on global markets. John O’Donnell joins Merlin
in studio to talk about how the dollar has impacted these commodities
and the impact they will have on domestic markets, but global markets as
USD/JPY Aims Higher After Climb Above 119 With Reversal Signals Absent (based on dailyfx article)
Key EURUSD Scalp Targets Heading Into ECB / NFPs (based on dailyfx article)
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
Australia October Trade Deficit A$1.323 Billion
Australia posted a merchandise trade deficit of A$1.323 billion in
October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
beat expectations for a shortfall of A$1.80 billion following the
revised A$2.235 billion deficit in September (originally A$2.261
It's also a decrease of A$912 million (41 percent) on the deficit in September 2014.
Exports were up 2.0 percent on year to A$26.904 billion. They were worth A$26.495 billion in September.
goods climbed A$700 million (4 percent), while non-monetary gold fell
A$204 million (13 percent), rural goods lost A$115 million (4 percent)
and net exports of goods under merchanting fell A$7 million (70
percent). Services credits gained A$35 million (1 percent).
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Aiming Above 120.00 Figure (based on dailyfx article)
The US Dollar looks to be accelerating against the Japanese Yen
anew, with prices poised to advance beyond the 120.00 figure. A daily
close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 120.48 exposes the 38.2%
level at 122.49. Alternatively, a reversal below the 14.6% Fib at 119.24
clears the way for a test of the November 27 low at 117.23.
Trading the News: European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
EUR/USD may continue to mark fresh monthly lows over the next 24-hours
of trade should the European Central Bank (ECB) take additional steps to
further support the monetary union.
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, there’s growing speculation that the Governing Council will
broaden the scope of its non-standard measures while implementing a
large-scale quantitative easing (QE) program to better achieve its one
and only mandate for price stability, and the single currency remains at
risk of facing additional headwinds in 2015 as the outlook for growth
and inflation remains subdued.
Nevertheless, the ECB may merely reiterate the policy statement from the
November 6 meeting as the central bank gauges the impact of the
targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (T-LTRO), and we may see a
relief rally in EUR/USD should the Governing Council make an attempt to
buy more time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish EUR Trade: ECB Implements Additional Monetary Support
EUR/USD Daily Chart
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2014.12.04
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo
EURUSD M5: 117 pips range price movement by EUR - ECB Press Conference news event
This is 135 range movement for now by this news event:
EURUSD M5: 135 pips range price movement by EUR - ECB Press Conference news event
EUR/USD Rallies to 1.24 after ECB Disappointment (based on marketpulse article)
The euro started trade on Friday higher against most of its peers but could struggle to extend gains if U.S. employment data due later in the day re-energize dollar bulls.
Investors were forced to trim bearish positions in the common currency overnight after the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed some by not immediately expanding its stimulus program.
As a result, the euro jumped to $1.2457 from a two-year trough around $1.2279. It has since steadied at $1.2380.
It climbed towards a six-year peak of 149.12 yen set on Nov. 20, rising as far as 148.95 before losing a bit of steam to last fetch 148.27 yen.
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (based on dailyfx article)
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may spark a bearish reaction in
EUR/USD as market participants expected another 230K rise in employment
paired with an uptick in wage growth.
Why Is This Event Important:
A batch of positive developments may spark another near-term rally in
the greenback especially as a growing number of Fed officials show a
greater willingness to normalize monetary policy in 2015.However, the employment report may disappoint amid the ongoing slack in
the labor market, and the greenback may face a larger correction over
the near-term as a weaker-than-expected NFP print drags on interest rate
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Strong Job/Wage Growth Boosts Interest Rate Expectations
EURUSD M5: 83 pips pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
GBPUSD M5: 70 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
USDCAD M5: 99 pips price range movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event