GOLD (XAU/USD) October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started
W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the correction to be started, but Absolute Strength indicator and Chinkou Span line of Ichimoku indicator are evaluating the future trend as the ranging bullish condition, and Tenkan-sen line located to be above Kijun-sen line
are indicating for the primary bullish trend to be continuing.By the way, the bearish reversal level is 1171.88, and if the price breaks this level to below so the global bearish reversal will be started for this and next year for example.
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.01 11:58
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 02 - October 09 (based on the article)
The third quarter ended with mixed moves in currencies. A full buildup to the US Non-Farm Payrolls, a rate decision in Australia and other figures fill the first week of the last quarter. These are the main events on forex calendar.
My view with gold strenth.
Gold Strength still bearish and USD Strength slightly up
but PA is on D1 demand
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 09 - October 16 (based on the article)
ZEW Economic Sentiment, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Rate decision, US
Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Consumer Sentiment and
Janet Yellen’s speech; These are the main events on forex calendar.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.15 09:46
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 16 - October 23 (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.17 17:42
Quick Technical Overview - GOLD: price reversed to the bearish with 1,241.34 support (adapted from the article)
Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. Fow now, the price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting to be reversed back to the ranging bullish condition or for the bearish trend to be resumed.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.22 13:55
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Highlighting the economic docket next week is
the advanced read on U.S. 3Q GDP with consensus estimates calling for
an annualized print of 2.5% q/q. The Core Personal Consumption
Expenditure (PCE) will be of particular interest with market
expectations calling for a slowdown to 1.6% q/q from 1.8% q/q. Keep in
mind that this is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation and a softer
than expected print could weigh on expectations for a 2016 rate hike. As
is stands, Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 68% likelihood the central
bank will hike in December. Look for advances in gold to remain limited
as the prospect of higher interest rates weigh on demand for the yellow
metal as a store of wealth."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.29 11:17
XAU/USD Index - "U.S. 3Q GDP figures released on Friday showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.9% q/q, topping estimates for a print of just 2.6%. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure, (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, also beat consensus with a print of 1.7% q/q. Still, the data is unlikely to move the needle for the monetary policy outlook, with Fed Fund Futures still pricing in just a 17% chance of a hike this month as expectations for a December rate-hike hold decision steady at nearly 75%. For gold, the implications are for more sideways price action with next week’s event risk likely to charge considerable volatility in prices."
Nse signals, 2016.10.30 08:30
SELL GOLD AT 1278 - 1279
TGT 1274 - 1270 - 1266
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.06 08:21
Week Ahead On Wall Street: Markets Brace For Election Results (based on Forbes article)
Monday"British lawmakers will debate the implications of Brexit, after the High Court said that Parliament must give its approval before the country can move forward with its split from the European Union."
Tuesday"It’s election day. Billionaire Elon Musk has begun campaigning for the merger of SolarCity and Tesla and last week promised that the tie-up would yield big financial benefits for Tesla investors."
Wednesday"Goldman Sachs is expected to announce which of its top employees have achieved partner status. It does this every two years and in 2014 named 78 people to the position. The partnership ranks are tough to break into and represent fewer than 2% of the firm’s workers."
Thursday"Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, activist investor Bill Ackman, Goldman Sachs CEO Llyod Blankfein and others will speak at The New York Times’ Dealbook conference."
Friday"Bond markets are closed for Veteran’s Day. The stock market will keep its normal hours."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.15 15:01
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
From Market Watch article: U.S. retail sales post biggest back-to-back sales since 2014
"Retail sales jumped 0.8% last month after a revised 1% gain in
September, the government said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by
MarketWatch had forecast a seasonally adjusted 0.7% advance."
EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events
USD/CAD M5: 29 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events
GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events