USD/CNH October-December 2016 Forecast: ranging within narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or to the correction to be started
W1 price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:
Chinkou Span line
is located above the price indicating the ranging condition, Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line
for the bullish trend to be continuing, and
Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the trend to be ranging in the future.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.24 11:24
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.30 09:22
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: aixin Manufacturing PMI and 41 pips price movement
2016-09-30 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
USD/CNH M5: 41 pips price movement by aixin Manufacturing PMI news event
Weekly Outlook: 2016, October 09 - October 16 (based on the article)
ZEW Economic Sentiment, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, UK Rate decision, US
Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, US Consumer Sentiment and
Janet Yellen’s speech; These are the main events on forex calendar.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.11 08:03
So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? (adapted from the article)
"In short, the Yuan weakness gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and export advantage
that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy stimulus that would
naturally align with the “yield curve control’ announced on September
"On Monday, the Chinese Renminbi (off-short Yuan) fell by its largest
amount in four months after China opened following National Day Golden
Week holiday. The drop amounted to 0.46% for the Yuan but continues to
validate the trend of a stronger USD and weaker CNH. The weakening took
the Yuan to its lowest level (6.7501) since September 2010 according to
"The weakening aligns with China FX reserves shows a rising amount of
capital is leaving. The increase in capital flows could bring volatility
to global markets as the world awaits the next move by the Federal
Reserve that could bring down the Yuan and is encouraging wealthy
citizens of China to move their money overseas in yuan amid Yuan
So why all this talk about the CNY weakness? In short, the Yuan weakness
gives China a comparative and possibly absolute manufacturing and
export advantage that could encourage the aggressive fiscal policy
stimulus that would naturally align with the “yield curve control’
announced on September 21."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.13 15:45
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and 127 pips price movement
2016-10-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.
From Forex Live article:
USD/CNH M5: 127 pips range price movement by China Trade Balance news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.14 09:48
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and 42 pips price movement
2016-10-14 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]
[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
From RTT News article:
USD/CNH M5: 42 pips range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event
USD/CNH: End Of Week Technicals - Bullish Continuation Or Correction To Be Started
trading week is ended with some results concerning USD/CNH: the price was started with the bullish breakout last Friday and it was stopped by 6.7425 resistance level. For now, the price is still on testing with this 6.7425 resistance for the bullish trend to be continuing.---------
is located to be above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market
condition with the ranging within the following s/r levels:
is on bullish trend with 6.7425 resistance level to be broken for the primary bullish condition to be continuing:
If H4 price breaks 6.7425 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.If H4 price breaks 6,7179 support so the local downtrend as the secondary ranging correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.If H4 price breaks 6,7051 support so we may see the bearish reversal to be started for this intra-day price movement.If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bullish
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.19 08:16
USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Real GDP and 77 pips range price movement
2016-10-19 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]
[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
From reuters article: China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises
USD/CNH M5: 77 pips range price movement by China Real GDP news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.27 14:58
Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH : Durable Goods Orders2016-10-27 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.
From Market Watch article: Durable-goods orders soften in September
EUR/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events
USD/CNH M5: 28 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events
Sergey Golubev, 2016.10.28 09:51
USD/CNH Ahead of US 3Q GDP (based on the article)
Daily price is on primary bullish market cndition located above 100 SMA/200 SMA: the price broke 6.7757 level to above on clos daily bar for 6.7969 resistance level to be broken for the bullish trend to be continuing.
The most likely scenario for the daily price movement is the following: the price breaks 6.8 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be resumed, otherwise - ranging bullish.