Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 147

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.03 14:48

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and 45 pips price movement

2016-02-01 01:45 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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EURUSD M5: 45 pips price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.04 08:05

Gold Up, Hits 3-Month High, As Bulls Continue to Gain Confidence (based on the article)

"Gold prices are modestly higher and scored another three-month high in early U.S. trading Wednesday."

W1 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the bearish market condition with the local uptrend as the secondary market rally: the price was bounced from 1047.65 support level for the rally to be started and with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for the direction of the trend.

  • If the price will break 1205.74 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1047.65 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1191.48
1047.65
1205.74
N/A

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1047.65 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1205.74 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: rally
SUMMARY : bear market rally

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.04 09:28

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 57 pips price movement

2016-02-04 08:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the Deutsche Bundesbank's Marjolin Lecture, in Frankfurt.

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"So even in the face of common global shocks, central banks have the ability to deliver their mandates. But in the euro area, that requires a different monetary policy response than for others. That is because we also face a second set of challenges that are largely specific to us. They result from our institutional structure: conducting monetary policy in a segmented banking and capital market, and without a single area-wide fiscal authority as a counterpart. There are two types of challenges in particular that emerge from this."

"There are forces in the global economy today that are conspiring to hold inflation down. Those forces might cause inflation to return more slowly to our objective. But there is no reason why they should lead to a permanently lower inflation rate."

"What matters is that central banks act within their mandates to fulfill their mandates. In the euro area, that might create different challenges than it does in other jurisdictions. But those challenges can be mitigated. They do not justify inaction."

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EURUSD M5: 57 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.04 09:55

Trading the News: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (based on the article)

The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision is likely to reveal another 8 to 1 split as the central bank remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy, but the updated forecasts may heighten the appeal of the sterling and fuel a larger recovery in GBP/USD should the central bank highlight a greater risk of overshooting the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Governor Mark Carney largely endorses a wait-and-see approach, an upward revision in the BoE’s economic projections may boost interest rate expectations as central bank officials remain upbeat on the U.K. economy and prepare households/businesses for higher borrowing-costs.

Nevertheless, signs of sticky price growth paired with the pickup in private-sector lending may push the BoE to drop its dovish tone, and the fresh updated coming out of the central bank may spur a larger recovery in the British Pound should the central bank show a greater willingness to implement a rate-hike in 2016.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: MPC Continues to Endorse Wait-and-See Approach
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a short GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors selling Cable, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.
Bearish GBP Trade: BoE Highlights Greater Risk of Overshooting Long-Term Inflation Target
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish sterling trade, just in reverse.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBP/USD Daily


  • Long-term outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the pair preserves the downward trend from back in August, but the near-term advance in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may foreshadow a larger correction in the exchange rate as the oscillator threatens the bearish formation carried over from May.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.04 09:59

GBPUSD M5: 63 pips range price movement by BOE Official Bank Rate news event :




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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.05 06:35

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Retail Sales and 25 pips price movement

2016-02-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales ex Inflation]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

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AUDUSD M5: 25 pips price movement by AUD Retail Sales news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.05 10:55

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months, the disinflationary environment across the major industrialized economies may keep the Fed on the sidelines for most of the year as central bank officials look for greater evidence of achieving the 2% target for price growth.

However, the persistent slack in private-sector consumption paired with the rise in planned job-cuts may drag on employment, and a soft labor report along with a marked slowdown in wage growth may spark a further depreciation in the dollar as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climbs 190K+, Hourly Earnings Highlight Sticky Wage Growth
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
  • If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Fails to Meet Market Forecast
  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • Even though the diverging paths for monetary policy casts a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD, the pair may test the broad range from the previous year as it appears to be breaking out of the downward trend carried over from the end of 2014; will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it approaches overbought territory, with a break above 70 highlighting the risk for a further advance in the exchange rate.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)
December 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 57 pips price movement by USD - U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change news event:

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.05 10:55

EURUSD M5: 133 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:




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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.06 10:41

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 07.02 - 14.02: key resistance level to be broken for the bullish breakout to be continuing; otherwise - ranging bullish

Daily price is on bullish breakout: the price crossed Ichimoku cound together with Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary ebarish and the primary bullish trend on the chart) and stopped near and below 1.1238 resistance level.

There are the following key support/resistance reversal lines:

  • 1.1238 key resistance line located far above Ichimoku cloud in the porimary bullish area of the daily chart,
  • 1.0992 key support level located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area between the secondary ranging and the secondary correction area, and
  • 1.0809 key support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary area.

Chinkou Span line is located above the price with the Absolute Strength indicator which are estimating the daily bullish trend to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 1.1238 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.0992 support level on close bar from above to below so the secondary correction within the primary bullish will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.0809 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition with 1.0707 target in this case.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1238 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.0992 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bullish
Resistance
Support
1.12381.0992
N/A
1.0809



SUMMARY : breakout

TREND : bullish

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.07 08:24

The Best E-Commerce Stock Is Not Amazon (based on the article)


"When most people think of e-commerce, the first name that leaps to mind is Amazon.com (AMZN). There’s good reason for that: according to Macquarie Research, the retail giant accounted for more than half of all e-commerce growth last year."


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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.08 09:27

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bullish: secondary corerection or bullish breakout?

H4 price is on primary bullish market condition located far above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the ranging within 1.1247 resistance and 1.1108 support levels.

  • If the price will break 1.1247 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1108 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started within the primary bullish condition up to 1.0913 level as the target to re-enter.
  • If price will break 1.0913 support so we may see the reversal from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition to be started for intra-day price.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12471.1108
N/A
1.0913


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0913 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1247 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.08 15:15

Gold Technical Analysis: bullish reversal in a medium term, rally to be started in long-term

Medium-term situation

Seem the weekly breakout is going on for now: the price is breaking Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart:


The reversal resistance level is 1205.74 so if the price breaks this level to above so it will be the bullish reversal.

The situation in a long-term

The key resistance level for monthly timeframe is the same one: 1205.74, and if the price breaks this level so the local uptrend as a bear market rally will be started:

I think the traders (who invested in gold thinking that 1040/1047 value is the bottom) are having good money now.