Press review - page 367

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 14 pips range price movement

2016-01-25 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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EURUSD M5: 14 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Danske Bank: buy EUR and sell GBP (based on the article)

  • Danske Bank recommends buying EUR, SEK and CHF while selling AUD, NZD and GBP based on their weights in portfolio/ Let's evaluate this forecast in a technical points of view.

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EURUSD.

H4 price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • Fibo support level at 1.0777 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary ebarish area of the chart, and
  • 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 located near and above 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.


If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.0777 to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary ebarish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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GBPUSD.

H4 price is far below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition/ The price is ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.4221 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart, and
  • Fibo resistance level at 1.4362 located near 100 SMA and below 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bearish trend.


There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

  • local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in case the price breaks 1.4362 resistance level to above,
  • bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4079 target in case the price breaks 1.4221 support level to below,
  • or the ranging will be continuing within the levels.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUDIO - Nailing Levels with Roger Best (based on the article)

"On his last visit with us on Power Trading Radio, Roger was talking about trade setups, and how he plans out trades with his students live in class. This time, Roger shares 3 of the setups that his class worked on from December 11th, all of which worked out very well! The duo looks at probability and risk management as a function of planning as well."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: CB Consumer Confidence and 10 pips range price movement

2016-01-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in December, improved moderately in January. The Index now stands at 98.1 (1985=100), up from 96.3 in December. The Present Situation Index was unchanged at 116.4, while the Expectations Index increased from 83.0 to 85.9 in January."

“Consumer confidence improved slightly in January, following an increase in December,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held steady, while their expectations for the next six months improved moderately. For now, consumers do not foresee the volatility in financial markets as having a negative impact on the economy.”

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: AUD Consumer Price Index and 39 pips price movement

2016-01-27 00:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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"THE ALL GROUPS CPI

  • rose 0.4% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.5% last quarter.
  • rose 1.7% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2015, compared with a rise of 1.5% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2015."

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AUDUSD M5: 39 pips price movement by AUD - Consumer Price Index news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Targets for EUR/USD - United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish with target of 1.0710

  • "In line with expectations, the recent EUR/USD strength extended higher to test the 1.0875/80 resistance (high of 1.0873). The undertone remains positive and from here, a move towards 1.0895/00 will not be surprising. Only a move back below 1.0815 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased."
  • "Thus, the short-term EUR strength appears to have room to extend higher but as long as the stop-loss at 1.0905 is intact, we continue to hold a bearish view. That said, as highlighted previously, downward momentum is not impulsive and a move below the major support at 1.0710 appears unlikely for now."
Resistance
Support
1.0992
1.0777
1.10591.0710


If daily price will break 1.0777 support level on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing with 1.0710 target to re-enter.
If the price will break 1.0992 resistance level so the reversal of the daily price movement from the porimary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started with 1.1059 target.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.0992 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.0777 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : bearish ranging on reversal
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Home Sales and 20 pips price movement

2016-01-27 15:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

  • past data is 491K
  • forecast data is 500K
  • actual data is 544K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.

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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by New Home Sales news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Federal Funds Rate and 44 pips price movement

2016-01-27 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.50%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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"Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.

Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation."

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EURUSD M5: 44 pips price movement by Federal Funds Rate news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Federal Funds Rate and 35 pips price movement

2016-01-27 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.50%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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"Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook."

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USDJPY M5: 35 pips price movement by Federal Funds Rate news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113440
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 59 pips price movement

2016-01-27 20:00 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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"The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5 percent.

Uncertainty about the strength of the global economy has increased due to weaker growth in the developing world and concerns about China and other emerging markets. Prices for a range of commodities, particularly oil, remain weak. Financial market volatility has increased, and global inflation remains low."

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NZDUSD M5: 59 pips price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event :