Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 5

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.25 09:39

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Trade Balance and 26 pips price movement

2016-01-24 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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USDJPY M5: 26 pips price movement by JPY - Trade Balance news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.25 15:17

Danske Bank: buy EUR and sell GBP (based on the article)

  • Danske Bank recommends buying EUR, SEK and CHF while selling AUD, NZD and GBP based on their weights in portfolio/ Let's evaluate this forecast in a technical points of view.

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EURUSD.

H4 price is located below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with secondary ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • Fibo support level at 1.0777 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary ebarish area of the chart, and
  • 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 located near and above 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish area.


If the price will break Fibo support level at 1.0777 to below so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If the price will break 61.8% Fibo resistance level at 1.0899 to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary ebarish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

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GBPUSD.

H4 price is far below 200 period SMA (200 SMA) and below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition/ The price is ranging within the following key reversal support resistance levels:

  • 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.4221 located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart, and
  • Fibo resistance level at 1.4362 located near 100 SMA and below 200 SMA on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bearish trend.


There are 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

  • local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in case the price breaks 1.4362 resistance level to above,
  • bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4079 target in case the price breaks 1.4221 support level to below,
  • or the ranging will be continuing within the levels.

 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bullish condition on the border with reversal near 100 SMA/200 SMA area

M5 price is on bullish ranging near and above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on M5 intra-day chart. The price is located within 1.0859 resistance and 1.0840 support with RSI indicator estomating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.0859 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0840 support to below so the reversal from the primary bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
1.08591.0840
N/AN/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0840 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.0859 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish     
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.26 16:26

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: CB Consumer Confidence and 10 pips range price movement

2016-01-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in December, improved moderately in January. The Index now stands at 98.1 (1985=100), up from 96.3 in December. The Present Situation Index was unchanged at 116.4, while the Expectations Index increased from 83.0 to 85.9 in January."

“Consumer confidence improved slightly in January, following an increase in December,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held steady, while their expectations for the next six months improved moderately. For now, consumers do not foresee the volatility in financial markets as having a negative impact on the economy.”

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.27 10:51

Technical Targets for EUR/USD - United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bearish with target of 1.0710. 

  • "In line with expectations, the recent EUR/USD strength extended higher to test the 1.0875/80 resistance (high of 1.0873). The undertone remains positive and from here, a move towards 1.0895/00 will not be surprising. Only a move back below 1.0815 would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased."
  • "Thus, the short-term EUR strength appears to have room to extend higher but as long as the stop-loss at 1.0905 is intact, we continue to hold a bearish view. That said, as highlighted previously, downward momentum is not impulsive and a move below the major support at 1.0710 appears unlikely for now."
Resistance
Support
1.0992
1.0777
1.10591.0710


If daily price will break 1.0777 support level on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing with 1.0710 target to re-enter.
If the price will break 1.0992 resistance level so the reversal of the daily price movement from the porimary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started with 1.1059 target.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.0992 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.0777 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : bearish ranging on reversal

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.27 16:41

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Home Sales and 20 pips price movement

2016-01-27 15:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

  • past data is 491K
  • forecast data is 500K
  • actual data is 544K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.

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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by New Home Sales news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.27 20:11

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Federal Funds Rate and 44 pips price movement

2016-01-27 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 0.50%
  • forecast data is 0.50%
  • actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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"Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.

Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation."

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EURUSD M5: 44 pips price movement by Federal Funds Rate news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.28 14:52

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Durable Goods Orders and 25 pips price movement

2016-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 0.0%
  • forecast data is -0.7%
  • actual data is -5.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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EURUSD M5: 25 pips price movement by Durable Goods Orders news event :



 

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - secondary correction to the possible bearish reversal

H4 price was on the breakout by crossing Ichimoku cloud to above with the bullish reversal: the price broke key resistance level and stopped by 1.0967 resistance for the secondary correction to be started with 1.0864 target. The price is moved withing the following key reversal s/r levels for now:

  • 1.0967 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of intra-day chart, and
  • 1.0788 support located far below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area.

The support level at 1.0869 is located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart so if the price breaks this level so the bearish reversal may be started.

  • Chinkou Span indicator is located above the price for the correction to be continuing by the direction.
  • Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be continuing.
  • Trend Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be finsihed soon by the direction.
Resistance
Support
1.09671.0869
1.09751.0788


If H4 price will break 1.0869 support level on close H4 bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish condition may eb started with the secondary ranging: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
If H4 price will break 1.0788 support level on close H4 bar so the price will be fully reversed to the bearish market condition.
If H4 price will break 1.0967 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : secondary correction to possible bearish reversal
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.01.29 15:26

Intra-Day Fundamentals: Gross Domestic Product and 114 pips price movement for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

2016-01-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - Gross Domestic Product]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Gross Domestic Product] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent."

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EURUSD M5: 63 pips price movement by Gross Domestic Product news event :


GBPUSD M5: 51 pips price movement by Gross Domestic Product news event :



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