Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 148

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.08 20:18

Setup for EUR/USD by Barclays (adapted from the article)


EUR/USD: "We have turned bearish against resistance in the 1.1260/90 area and look for a move towards former range highs near 1.1060. A break below 1.1060 would signal an end to the corrective bounce off 1.0525 and further downside towards 1.0780."


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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.09 08:07

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: National Australia Bank Business Confidence and 39 pips price movement

2016-02-09 00:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.

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"Financial market volatility has persisted, raising the risk of an adverse impact on Australian business that could threaten the recovery seen in the non-mining economy. However, today’s NAB Monthly Business Survey suggests that business confidence – where the negative effects from financial markets are likely to be felt first – have held up reasonably well in the face of this uncertainty. The confidence index remained unchanged at +2 points in January.

According to NAB Group Economist Alan Oster, “Given all the volatility in equity and financial markets, this is yet another relatively good result from the Business Survey. It suggests things remain broadly on track for the non-mining economy”.

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AUDUSD M5: 39 pips price movement by NAB Business Confidence news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.09 10:06

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Industrial Production and 18 pips price movement

2016-02-09 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[EUR - German Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

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"In December 2015,production in industry was down 1.2% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In November 2015, the corrected figure shows a decreased of 0.1% (primary –0.3%) from October 2015. 

In December 2015, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 1.1%. Within industry, the production of capital goods decreased by 2.6% and the production of consumer goods by 1.4%. The production of intermediate goods showed an increased 0.8% .Energy production fell by 3.0% in December 2015 and the production in construction decreased by 0.2%."

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EURUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by German Industrial Production news event :



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Quick Technical Overview - DAX Index: weekly bearish breakdown; monthly global bearish reversal

Weekly price is on bearish breakdown to be started in the beginning of January this year: price broke 'reversal' Senkou Span line to below for the bearish reversal.


Monthly price is on local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition. Chinkou Span line is crossing historical price to below for the good possible breakdown in the near future with the possible monthly bearish reversal. 'Reversal' Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish on the chart) is located near and below the price at aroud 8,300 level so if the price breaks this level to below on close monthly bar so the global bearish situation with DAX Index will be started.


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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.10 08:19

GBP/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting to break the levels for direction

H4 price is located between SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout or breakdown. The key support/resistance levels for this pair are thefollowing : 1.4514 as the resistance and 1.4350 as support level.

  • If the price will break 1.4514 resistance level so we may see the bullish trend to be started on this timeframe.
  • If price will break 1.4350 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.45141.4350
1.46671.4185


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.4350 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.4514 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.10 10:42

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing Production and 56 pips price movement

2016-02-10 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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  • "Total production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.5% between Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015 and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015. This decrease was larger than the forecasted decrease of 0.2% contained within the Gross Domestic Product: Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015."

  • "The largest contribution to the total production quarterly decrease came from mining & quarrying, which decreased by 2.3%, while manufacturing output remained unchanged during the same period."

  • "Total production output is estimated to have increased by 1.0% between 2014 and 2015. Of the 4 main sectors, manufacturing output was the only one to fall, decreasing by 0.2%."

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GBPUSD M5: 56 pips price movement by UK Manufacturing Production news event :



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.10 15:18

EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bullish within key reversal levels waiting for breakdown or breakout for the trend to be continuing

H4 price is on primary bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1337 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.1162 support level located above the cloud between the primary bullish and the secondary correction.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction with the ranging to be started within the primary bullish condition, and Chinkou Span line is near above the price and ready to cross it to below for the possible breadown.

Resistance
Support
1.13371.1162
N/A
1.0903


If H4 price will break 1.1162 support level on close H4 bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started with the good possibility to the reversal of intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
If H4 price will break 1.1337 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch cH4 close price to break 1.1337 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 close price to break 1.1162 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.10 16:46

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speech and 49 pips price movement

2016-02-10 15:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.

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"The Committee is continuing its policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. As highlighted in the December statement, the FOMC anticipates continuing this policy "until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way." Maintaining our sizable holdings of longer-term securities should help maintain accommodative financial conditions and reduce the risk that we might need to return the federal funds rate target to the effective lower bound in response to future adverse shocks."

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EURUSD M5: 49 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :



Sergey Golubev
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Quick Technical Overview - Dollar Index: bearish breakdown

Daily price is located below 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA for the bearish breakdown: the price broke key support levels together with 100-SMA/200-SMA to be reversed from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition with 95.66 bearish target to re-enter.

  • If price will break 95.66 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.
ResistanceSupport
97.4895.66
100.5193.81

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 95.66 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: N/A
  • Trading Summary: bearish

SUMMARY : breakdown

TREND : primary bearish market condition      
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.11 16:15

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speech and 20 pips price movement

2016-02-11 15:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC.

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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :