Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.16 08:09
"The current down-move from the high is likely part of a corrective
pull-back which could extend lower to 1.1060. The major support is
nearer to 1.0990 and a move below this level is not expected for now.
Overall, this pair is expected to remain under pressure in the coming
days unless it can reclaim the 1.1375 peak."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.16 12:09
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and 15 pips price movement
2016-02-16 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.
"The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany has declined for
the second consecutive time in February 2016. The index has decreased by
9.2 points compared to the previous month, now standing at 1.0 points
(long-term average: 24.6 points)."
EURUSD M5: 15 pips price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.16 14:44
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New York Manufacturing Index and 13 pips price movement
2016-02-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Empire Manufacturing]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Empire Manufacturing] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state.
"The February 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates
that business activity continued to decline for New York manufacturers.
The headline general business conditions index edged up three points,
but remained firmly in negative territory at -16.6. The new orders and
shipments indexes indicated an ongoing decline in both orders and
shipments. Price indexes suggested a slight increase in input prices and
a small drop in selling prices. Employment levels steadied, while the
average workweek index pointed to a decrease in hours worked. The
six-month outlook remained weak, with the index for future general
business conditions up only slightly from last month’s multi-year low."
EURUSD M5: 13 pips price movement by Empire State Manufacturing Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.17 08:05
GBPUSD M5: 32 pips price movement by Claimant Count Change news event
Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.17 13:57
EURUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging for direction
is on ranging market condition located inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction.
H4 price will break 1.1086 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish will be continuing without secondary ranging.If H4 price will break 1.1247 resistance level so we may see the reversal to the primary bullish
market condition.If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : ranging
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.17 14:43
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: US Producer Price Index and 14 pips price movement
2016-02-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core PPI]
[USD - Core PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy.
"The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.2 percent in December and advanced 0.4 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index declined 0.2 percent for the 12 months ended in January."
"The increase in the final demand index for January can be traced to a 0.5-percent advance in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods moved down 0.7 percent."
"In January, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 0.8 percent."
EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by Producer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.18 06:58
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CPI and 13 pips price movement
2016-02-18 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
"In January of 2016, the consumer price index (CPI) went up by 1.8 percent year-on-year. Producer Price Index (PPI) for manufactured goods decreased 5.3 percent year-on-year, and decreased 0.5 percent month-on-month."
EURUSD M5: 13 pips price movement by China CPI news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.18 07:40
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Jobless Rate and 41 pips price movement
2016-02-18 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Unemployment Rate]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.
AUDUSD M5: 41 pips price movement by Australian Jobless Rate news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.19 08:56
Gold Rallies On More Bargain Hunting, Technical Buying (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.19 09:29
Trading News Events: U.S. Consumer Price Index (based on the article)
A marked pickup in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may heighten the
appeal of the dollar and spark a further decline in EUR/USD as it puts
increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to
implement higher borrowing-costs in 2016.
Why Is This Event Important:
Signs of stronger price growth may encourage the Fed to further
normalize monetary policy over the coming months especially as the U.S.
economy approaches ‘full-employment,’ while Chair Janet remains
confident in achieving the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.
Nevertheless, waning confidence paired with the slowdown in
private-sector activity may drag on price growth, and a dismal
development may produce near-term headwinds for the greenback as market
participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: CPI Climbs to 1.3% or Higher, Core Inflation Remains Sticky