Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 146

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.01 07:33

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and 13 pips price movement

2016-02-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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"Chinese manufacturers signalled a modest deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2016,  with  both  output  and  employment  declining  at slightly  faster  rates  than  in  December. Total new business meanwhile fell at the weakest rate in seven months, and despite a faster decline  in  new export  work.  Nonetheless,  lower  production  requirements  led  companies  to cut back on their purchasing activity and inventories of inputs. On the prices front, both input costs and output charges fell again in January, though at the weakest rates in seven months."

"At  48.4  in  January,  the  seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a  composite  indicator  designed  to provide  a  single -figure  snapshot  of  operating  conditions  in  the  manufacturing  economy – remained  below  the  crucial  50.0  value  separating  growth  from  contraction  for  the  eleventh  successive  month.  The  reading  was  up  slightly  from 48.2  in  December,  and  sign alled  a  further  modest  deterioration in the overall health of China’s manufacturing sector."

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NZDUSD M5: 13 pips price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event :



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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.01 08:39

GBPUSD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging on reversal to be inside Ichimoku cloud for the direction of the trend

H4 price is located inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging waiting for the direction of the trend. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the near future.

Resistance
Support
1.43581.4149
1.4412N/A


If H4 price will break 1.4149 support level on close H4 bar so the bearish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
If H4 price will break 1.4412 resistance level so the price will be reversed to the bullish market condition.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close H4 price to break 1.4412 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch H4 price to break 1.4149 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging on reversal

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.01 10:41

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing PMI and 18 pips price movement

2016-02-01 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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  • UK Manufacturing PMI at three-month high of 52.9 in January
  • Improved domestic demand supports expansion of output
  • Input cost deflationary pressure remains strong

==========

GBPUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by GBP - Manufacturing PMI news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.01 16:07

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ISM Manufacturing PMI and 16 pips price movement

2016-02-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

"The January PMI® registered 48.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 48 percent. The New Orders Index registered 51.5 percent, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted reading of 48.8 percent in December. The Production Index registered 50.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 49.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 45.9 percent, 2.1 percentage points below the seasonally adjusted December reading of 48 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 43.5 percent, the same reading as in December. The Prices Index registered 33.5 percent, the same reading as in December, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 15th consecutive month. Comments from the panel indicate a mix ranging from strong to soft orders, as eight of our 18 industries report an increase in orders, and seven industries report a decrease in orders."


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EURUSD M5: 16 pips price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news event :



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The most interesting pair you can make money with - USD/CAD

USD/CAD: possible daily breakdown with bullish reversal. The daily price for the pair is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction which was started in the end of January this year: price crossed key support levels during the daily breakdown and stopped near 1.3946 level with 1.3814 target to re-enter to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging. Chinkou Span line is crossing the price to below on open daily bar for good breakdown to be started in the near future, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the local downtrend as the secondary correction to be continuing.

We are having 3 simple scenarios for the price movement for the week:

  • breakdown with bearish reversal in case the price breaks 1.3814 support,
  • bullish trend will be continuing in case the price breaks 1.4324 resistance,
  • or the ranging bullish condition within the levels.


Resistance
Support
1.43241.3814
1.4689
1.3363
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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.02 11:31

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Construction PMI and 44 pips range price movement

2016-02-02 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Construction PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Construction PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry.

==========

"January  data  pointed  to  a  renewed  slowdown  in output  growth  across  the  UK  construction  sector.  At 55.0,  down  from  57.8  in  December,  the headline seasonally  adjusted Markit/CIPS  UK  Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) remained well  above  the  50.0  no-change  value,  but signalled the  slowest  rate  of  expansion  since   April  2015. Moreover,   aside   from   the   pre-election   slowdown recorded last year, the latest reading was the lowest since  June  2013.  A  number of  survey  respondents noted that softer new business growth had  acted as a brake on output growth and staff hiring at the start of 2016."

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GBPDUSD M5: 44 pips range price movement by UK Construction PMI news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.02 17:01

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: GlobalDairyTrade Price Index and 26 pips price movement

2016-02-02 13:53 GMT | [NZD - GDT Price Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDT Price Index] = Change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction. It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries because rising commodity prices boost export income.

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NZDUSD M5: 26 pips price movement by GlobalDairyTrade Price Index news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.03 05:45

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks and 11 pips price movement

2016-02-03 02:30 GMT | [JPY - BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks]

BOJ Gov Kuroda speaks speak at the Kisaragi-kai meeting, in Tokyo: Introduction of "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate".

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USDJPY M5: 11 pips price movement by BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.03 10:52

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Services PMI and 38 pips price movement

2016-02-03 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

==========

GBPUSD M5: 38 pips price movement by UK Services PMI news event :



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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.03 14:25

Trading News Events: US ISM Non-Manufacturing (based on the article)

A slowdown in the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey may produce headwinds for the greenback and spur a near-term rally in EUR/USD as fears of a slowing recovery dampens bets for a Fed rate-hike in the first-half of 2016.

Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to implement higher borrowing-costs, mixed data prints coming out of the U.S. may encourage the central bank to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the March 16 interest rate decision as the ongoing slack on the real economy undermines the Fed’s scope to achieve its 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

Nevertheless, improved confidence accompanied by the pickup in the housing market may generate pickup in private-sector activity, and a stronger-than-expected ISM print may boost the appeal of the greenback as it reinforces Fed expectations for a consumption-driven recovery in 2016.

How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: ISM Non-Manufacturing Slips to 55.2 or Lower
  • Need green, five-minute candle following the ISM print to consider a long EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Service-Based Activity Unexpectedly Picks Up
  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


  • The diverging paths for monetary policy casts a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD, but the pair may attempt to break out of the triangle/wedge formation carried over from the previous month should the ISM report push market participants to push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1052 (November high) to 1.1090 (50% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)