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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 08:32
2016-02-12 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
EURUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by German GDP news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 11:59
2016-02-12 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Euro-Zone GDP]
[EUR - Euro-Zone GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
"Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in both the euro area (EA19) and
the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2015, compared with the previous
quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the
statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2015,
GDP grew by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively."
EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by Euro-Zone GDP news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.12 14:43
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Advance Retail Sales and 35 pips price movement
2016-02-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
EURUSD M5: 35 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
Quick Technical Overview - S&P 500: daily ranging bearish with the descending triangle pattern to be formed
is located below 200-day SMA and 100-day SMa area for the bearish market condition. The price is ranging within 1,811 support and 1,935 resistance levels with the descending triangle pattern to be form for the bearish trend to be continuing.
SUMMARY : ranging
Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 10:00
EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 14.02 - 21.02: daily ranging bullish near 1.1376 resistance
Daily price was on bullish breakout by breaking 1.1246 level: the price was bounced from 1.1376 with the secondary ranging condition and with ascending triangle pattern to be formed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
The price is started to be ranging within the following key support/resistance lines:
Span line is above the price for the ranging bullish condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.1086
support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be started.If D1 price will break 1.0881 support level on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.If D1 price will break 1.1376
resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bullish
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 18:11
Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
EUR/USD: Secondary correction to be started within the primary bullish market condition.
"Should the tactical rally we foresee occur, it would put pressure on
EURUSD once again. This would likely ease Eurozone inflation
expectations slightly but probably won’t prevent noise about potential
ECB action in March. Remember, the correlation between EURUSD and equity
markets remains strong and we expect the correlation to continue while
there are outstanding FX hedged equity positions in the markets."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 18:14
Weekly Outlook for USD/JPY by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
USD/JPY: Bearish trend to be continuing.
"We think the BoJ may try to use verbal intervention to stop the
appreciation of the JPY. Domestic fund managers have seen their foreign
holdings depreciate due to a combination of a stronger JPY and weaker
global equity markets. This deterioration has occurred when holdings of
foreign assets are at record highs, which could mean that stops are
triggered and repatriation of holdings is forced. The BoJ attempted to
push back against this by introducing negative rates, but failed. We
believe the BoJ will act as a circuit breaker, stopping the JPY
appreciating this week."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.14 18:18
Weekly Outlook for GBP/USD by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)
GBP/USD: Ranging bearish with symmetric triangle pattern to be broken to below with 1.4325 target.
"Any risk rally in equities or oil is likely to provide GBP with a
boost. We don’t expect this to last long though, so continue to promote
selling on rallies. The BoE remains dovish and the Brexit debate is in
full swing in the press. The UK’s current account deficit makes the
currency prone to weakness when inflows are reduced due to high market
volatility. EURGBP this week broke previous highs, supporting the upside
momentum in this pair."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.15 08:19
Technical Intra-day Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD. Bullish. Take partial profit at 1.1376.
"The current rally is showing signs of
slowing and a short-term top appears to be imminent. However,
confirmation is only upon a break below the stoploss at 1.1180. A break
below this level could lead to a pullback towards the 1.1085 support. Those who are long should continue to book some partial profit at 1.1376."
Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.15 15:21
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and 17 pips price movement
2016-02-15 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]
[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech] = Hearing at the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Brussels, 15 February 2016.
"In order to make the euro area more resilient, contributions from all
policy areas are needed. The ECB is ready to do its part. As we
announced at the end of our last monetary policy meeting in January, the
Governing Council will review and possibly reconsider the monetary
policy stance in early March. The focus of our deliberations will be
twofold. First, we will examine the strength of the pass-through of low
imported inflation to domestic wage and price formation and to inflation
expectations. This will depend on the size and the persistence of the
fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round
effects on domestic wages and prices. Second, in the light of the recent
financial turmoil, we will analyse the state of transmission of our
monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular by banks. If
either of these two factors entail downward risks to price stability,
we will not hesitate to act."
EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event