Press review - page 580

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NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2017-12-19 00:00 GMT | [NZD - Business Confidence]

  • past data is -39.3
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -37.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Business confidence in New Zealand showed a slight improvement in December, although it remains broadly pessimistic, the latest survey from ANZ Bank showed on Tuesday."
  • "The bank's business confidence index came in with a score of -37.8, up from -39.3 in November but still deep in negative territory."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Business Outlook Survey | ANZ
  • www.anz.co.nz
ANZ surveys 1,500 NZ businesses and analyses where the economy will be going over the next year. Business confidence, exports, labour market and more.
 

The agency proposed capping leverage, the amount of borrowed funds investors could use, at 50 to 1 with a 25 to 1 for traders with less than 12 months experience.

IG, Plus500 Plunge as EU Watchdog Signals Derivatives Crackdown
IG, Plus500 Plunge as EU Watchdog Signals Derivatives Crackdown
  • 2017.12.18
  • More stories by Sofia Horta E Costa
  • www.bloomberg.com
Shares of stock derivative brokers including CMC Markets Plc, Plus500 Ltd. and IG Group Holdings Plc sank in London after European regulators laid out potentially tougher rules on some speculative financial products.
 

GBP/USD - daily ranging near and above the bearish reversal levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging to eb above Ichimoku cloud within the following support/resistance levels:

1.3549 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
1.3285 support level located in the bearish reversal to be started.

Most likely scenario in the near future: daily ranging near and above the bearish reversal levels.


  • "GBP/USD can be directed to a deeper area on the chart. The levels of 1.3117 and 1.3216 could be helpful for such a purpose. At 1.3117, we have the 38.2% retracement of the ‘Brexit move’ in the pair, and at 1.3216, we have the 50% retracement of the August-September 2017 bullish move; and this is the same with which the 38.2% has been operable over the past two weeks. "
  • "Support in this zone opens the door for stops below the Q4 swing-low of 1.3026, targeting prior resistance at the 1.3477 Fibonacci level."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and USD/CAD: Residential Building Permits

2017-12-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.32M
  • forecast data is 1.27M
  • actual data 1.30M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From wsj article :

  • "Housing starts rose 3.3% in November from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.297 million, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Residential building permits, which can signal how much construction is in the pipeline, fell 1.4% to an annual pace of 1.298 million last month."
  • "Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 3.1% decrease for starts and a 2.3% decline for permits."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events


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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

 

Danske Bank: 'Firmly Headed' Into 1.20s In 2018 (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish ranging market condition located above Ichimoku cloud and within 1.1554 support level for the secondary correction to be started and 1.1961 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.2092 weekly target.


  • "We see risks in EUR/USD tilted to the upside for 2018 as a whole." 
  • "We are long EUR/USD on a 12M horizon via options in 2018."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

 

NZD/USD - daily ranging; 0.7033 is the key for the bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside ichimoku cloud for the rabging market condition: the price is breaking resistance levels at 0.7033 to above for the daily bullish reversal to be started.


  • "The New Zealand Dollar is struggling to sustain upward momentum having recovered to the highest level in two months against its US counterpart. A choppy range has been carved out below trend-defining resistance, hinting that recent gains might be corrective within a still-valid downward trend."
  • "From here, a daily close above trend line resistance in the 0.7024-43 area opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7078. Alternatively, a move back below the 23.6% level at 0.6964 paves the way for a retest of former range top resistance at 0.6911, now recast as support."
  • "The short NZD/USD position triggered at 0.6895 was stopped out as prices soared amid a broad-based US Dollar selloff inspired by last week’s FOMC policy announcement. Re-entering the trade seems premature absent an actionable reversal signal, making the sidelines appear most attractive for the time being."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and EUR/USD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-12-21 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

 

The Best Stocks Of 2017: Boeing, PayPal, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (based on the article)

NVIDIA share price on daily chart is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the trend. The price is on ranging within 218 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing and 184 support level for the secondary correction to be sarted.


  • "The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% this year, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has climbed a stunning 29% and the 30 blue-chip companies in the Dow have gained 21%."

1. Align Technology
Year-to-date return: 143%

2. NRG Energy
Year-to-date return: 122%

3. Micron Technology
Year-to-date return: 109%

4. Wynn Resorts
Year-to-date return: 98%

5. Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Year-to-date return: 97%

6. Boeing
Year-to-date return: 96.7%

7. DR Horton
Year-to-date return: 88%

8. PayPal
Year-to-date return: 87%

9. Nvidia
Year-to-date return: 85.1%

10. PulteGroup
Year-to-date return: 85%

 

Crude Oil - bullish ranging; 65.80 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 64.90 to above for 65.80 target to re-enter.


  • "Crude oil prices have quietly rallied while the Bitcoin moves steal the headlines. It appears as though a minor degree triangle pattern has ended as crude oil now presses recent highs. If our Elliott Wave count is correct, this move higher is a terminal wave that once it exhausts, could be retraced early in the new year. It appears crude oil prices are thrusting higher out of a triangle pattern in a fifth wave of an impulse wave. Using wave 5 measuring techniques one wave relationship shows up near $60.60 per barrel. Look for this wave 5 to subdivide in motive fashion (either as an impulse or as a diagonal). We can also anticipate divergence appearing on an oscillator like Relative Strength Index, which is typical in a fifth wave. We feel confident in the wave 4 triangle interpretation because in an impulse, wave 4 tends to alternate with wave 2 in the type of wave. Wave 2 was a zigzag wave and wave 4 is a triangle, which fits that guideline of alternation."
  • "Bottom line, we are in a terminal or ending wave of the 4 months advance. Crude oil price may find a terminal point near $60.60 though it does not have to."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

 

Weekly Outlook: 2017, December 24 - December 31 (based on the article)

The last week before the holidays saw the dollar mostly lower, with the exception of the Japanese yen. What’s next? The last week of 2017 is a holiday week that features low trading volume and liquidity. This usually results in quiet trading, but can also see surprising sparks. There are very few events, but they could trigger an outsized response given the conditions.


    1. US CB Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 15:00.
    2. US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. 
    3. US jobless claims: Thursday, 13:30. This weekly barometer of the labor market disappointed with a jump to 245K last time. We could see it sliding back to the 230Ks now.
    4. Chicago PMI: Thursday, 14:45. This purchasing managers’ index is usually overshadowed by bigger events but could have its say this time. After standing at the high level of 63.9 points in November, the fresh release for December will find it hard to reach higher ground. However, it had already reached higher ground. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
    5. German CPI: Friday, during the European morning with the final release coming at 13:00. Prices in Europe’s third-largest economy rose by 0.3% in November and its early publication will shape the numbers for all the euro-zone. Draghi’s dovishness is based on poor inflation in the euro-zone. We’ll now get an early look while liquidity is super-low just ahead of the New Years’ Party.
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