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Forecast and levels for CAC 40 - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.22 11:06

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for CAC 40 (based on the article)


CAC 40 - "The market’s attention will be fully placed on the French presidential election on Sunday. It’s currently a tight race and difficult to make a call on who will win, but there is a high likelihood that none of the candidates secure the necessary number of votes for an outright win. This will lead to a run-off vote between two candidates on May 7."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 13:35

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for CAC 40 (based on the article)


CAC 40 - "The election. Will we see a Macron victory as expected or a surprise win by Le Pen? In the likely event we see Macron become the next president of France, a gap higher in the CAC is a reasonable expectation – but will it hold if it does? The CAC finished last week with a sharp rally, rising to its best levels since January 2008. The 7%+ run since the Friday before the first-round election is setting the market up for a ‘sell-the-news’ gap on a Macron victory. If the market gaps up and then fills the void it doesn’t necessarily mean the overall run higher will have come to an end, but a short-term retracement could be in order following a ‘euphoric’ rise. If Le Pen wins? The CAC will likely have the hurts put on it as market participants haven’t priced in such an outcome. The sell-off would likely be quite violent."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.10 19:45

CAC 40 bounced from 5429.43 resistance to the bullish ranging to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 5429.43 resistance level to below for the ranging market condiion to be started. 

If the daily price breaks 5429.43 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 5295.47 support level to below on daily close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If the daily price breaks 4980.41 support level to below on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "The CAC 40 has opened Wednesday’s trading lower, potentially decline for the third consecutive session after printing a new 2017 high to start the week. Despite this recent string of losses, traders may still consider the CAC 40 technically in an ongoing uptrend. At present the CAC 40 is trading down -0.02%. Leaders for the session include Michelin (+1.25%) and Veolia Environnement (+0.91%). Top Losers for today’s trading include both Vinci (-1.22) and ArcelorMittal (-0.97%)."
  • "Technically, the CAC 40 remains in an ongoing short and long term uptrend. If prices close at near present levels, it will mark the 15th daily close above the displayed 10 day EMA (exponential moving average). This line is now found at 5,357.96 and will continue to be a reference of support as long as the CAC 40 continues to trend higher. If prices bounce above the EMA, traders may again look for the CAC 40 to trade back towards the weekly and yearly high at 5498.90."

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.12 08:12

Trading Lesson: Moving Averages and the direction of the trend (based on the article)


"Finding the direction of current market momentum is an important step for trend traders. Moving averages are a unique tool that help traders to just that on a variety of charts and time frames. A 200 period MVA (simple moving average) is often employed for this task, with traders looking to see if prices are currently above or below the average. If prices are trading above the 200 period MVA, the trend and market momentum may be interpreted as rising. As well if prices are below the average, this may be interpreted as a declining market."


"Often times, one line of reference may not be beneficial to a trader. To get a more complete look at momentum, traders may employ a series of MVA’s. Typical averages include the 20,50, and 200 period MVA’s. While the settings of the averages can be changed, traders should consider having a short, mid, and long term MVA for reference. In an uptrend, the shortest moving average should reside above the mid and long term lines. Alternatively in a downtrend, the short term average should be below both the mid and long term lines."


"Lastly, once traders are familiar with traditional averages, traders may expand their knowledge base to include other interpretations of moving averages. EMA’s (Exponential moving average) are similar to traditional MVA’s, however these lines are weighted. This means EMA’s are more sensitive to change in present market price than traditional MVA’s. Their sensitivity makes them a great tool for finding short term shifts in momentum on longer term charts."


Sergey Golubev
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Quick Technical Overview - CAC 40: bearish ranging within Ichimoku cloud; 5,180 is the key

Daily price is broke 5,238 support level to below for the bearish reversal to be started. If the price breaks 5,180 support level on daily close bar so the price will be located on the bearish area of the chart with 4,980 support level as a nearest daily bearish target, otherwise - ranging within Ichimoku cloud.

Resistance
 Support
5,1805,320
4,9805,341
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.20 06:30

Stock Market - what to watch the week of August 21-25 (based on the article)


Monday

  • It's business as usual on Wall Street as a partial solar eclipse casts something of a shadow over New York City.

Tuesday

  • Salesforce shares quarterly earnings after the bell.

Wednesday

  • New home sales in the U.S. are out for July.
  • Lowe's and American Eagle report earnings in the morning.
  • Hewlett-Packard and Williams-Sonoma share results in the afternoon.
  • Whole Foods investors cast their votes on the proposed $13.7 billion acquisition by Amazon.

Thursday

  • The three-day annual summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming begins.
  • Existing home sales in the U.S. are released for July.

Friday

  • A verdict is handed to Samsung's billionaire heir apparent Jay Y. Lee, who has been accused of bribing a government official in order to secure a merger that prosecutors say was intended to consolidate control of the nation's biggest conglomerate.

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.03 06:27

Stock Market - CAC 40 on daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

CAC 40 Index on daily chart is on bearish breakdown: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal with 5,073 nearest daily target to re-enter.
Daily strategy: keep short position.

CAC 40 Index

  • "Investors have a short memory when it comes to stock market crashes. For a simple reason: crashes do not last long, as central bankers come to the rescue with lower interest rates that make alternative investments less appealing. The trouble is that central bankers don’t lower interest rates, forever. In fact, they raise them as soon as there are signs that the economy is overheating and inflation heads above official targets."
  • "In either case, higher interest rates raise the cost of funds, especially for investors borrowing from their brokers to up their equity bets, at times of euphoria (margin borrowing). Higher interest rates, in turn, set the stage for the next stock market crash, as alternative risk free investments become more appealing than stocks."
  • "The trouble is that long term interest rates are rising again. The 10 year Treasury bond yields have climbed from 1.46% in July 2016 to 2.93% this week."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 


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