Median vs Average Month in 8 EA Backtests: The Median Was 0.06x to 0.80x the Average; ETHEREUM TREND 0.13% vs 2.13%

"The EA makes about 5% a month" is a common way to describe a backtest. But an average hides how the months are spread. We rebuilt the monthly returns of 8 of our EAs from the trade lists behind their published MT5 backtests and compared the average month with the median month, the one in the middle when all months are sorted. This article uses backtests only. It contains no forward-account figures. Figures are as of 2026-11-10.

- In all 8 EAs the median month returned less than the average month: between 0.06x and 0.80x of it. The average month was 1.25 to 16.1 times the median month.

- The widest gap is ETHEREUM TREND: average month +2.13%, median month +0.13%. Only 23 of its 78 months (29.5%) beat the average, and its best month was +56.0%.

- GOLD TRIPWIRE: average +5.74%, median +1.59%, and only 14 of 82 months (17.1%) were above the average. Its best month was +198.7%, measured on a small starting balance (see below).

- The narrowest gap is GOLD KING: average +4.82%, median +3.86% (0.80x). It also had no losing month in 89 months, yet the maximum relative equity drawdown of the same test is 91.3%.

- In none of the 8 did more than 40.7% of the months beat the average. A few strong months pull the average above what a normal month delivered.

- Each closed trade is assigned to the calendar month in which it closed. Commission and swap are included. Open positions are not valued. Only months with at least one trade are counted.

- Monthly return = the month's net result divided by the closed-trade balance at the start of that month (initial deposit plus all net results before it). There are no deposits or withdrawals in these tests. Because the EAs compound, an early month is measured on a small balance, which is why single early months can show very large percentages.

- Average month = the arithmetic mean of the monthly returns. Median month = the middle value. "Months above the average" counts months whose return is higher than the average month return of the same EA.

- The last column is the maximum relative equity drawdown of the whole test (site settings): the largest fall as a percent of the equity peak. It is not a monthly figure and is shown for scale. It is a different measure from the monthly returns beside it.

- Not in the table: GOLD NEURON is left out because its trade list did not add up to the report total when we rebuilt the monthly breakdown. TRINITY and AIFW are left out because the original report files behind their published backtests are not in our breakdown.

Sorted from the smallest median / average ratio to the largest.

EA | Test period and data | Months with trades (losing) | Average month return | Median month return | Median / average | Months above the average | Best month | Max relative equity DD (whole test)

ETHEREUM TREND | H4, 2019.01.01-2026.06.28, 100% real ticks | 78 (38) | 2.13% | 0.13% | 0.06x | 23 (29.5%) | 56.0% | 17.1%

BITCOIN COMET | H4, 2018.01.01-2025.12.31, 98% | 94 (41) | 6.86% | 1.22% | 0.18x | 22 (23.4%) | 184.3% | 31.2%

GOLD TRIPWIRE | M15, 2020.01.01-2026.10.14, 11% real ticks | 82 (12) | 5.74% | 1.59% | 0.28x | 14 (17.1%) | 198.7% | 19.0%

MEGAMAX DONCHIAN (USDJPY) | H1, 2017.01.01-2026.06.01, 100% | 113 (51) | 3.81% | 1.30% | 0.34x | 42 (37.2%) | 104.7% | 58.6%

DONCHIAN ENGINE (free) | H1, 2017.01.01-2026.06.01, 100% real ticks | 113 (52) | 0.90% | 0.40% | 0.44x | 46 (40.7%) | 10.6% | 10.8%

GOLD VIPER | M30, 2019.01.01-2026.09.01, 8% real ticks | 92 (24) | 6.48% | 4.17% | 0.64x | 34 (37.0%) | 42.9% | 30.3%

ATLAS PORTFOLIO | H4, 2019.01.01-2026.06.28, 100% | 90 (36) | 4.87% | 3.54% | 0.73x | 36 (40.0%) | 44.6% | 26.3%

GOLD KING | M1, 2019.01.01-2026.06.01, 5% real ticks | 89 (0) | 4.82% | 3.86% | 0.80x | 31 (34.8%) | 16.6% | 91.3%

- The three lowest ratios, ETHEREUM TREND (0.06x), BITCOIN COMET (0.18x) and GOLD TRIPWIRE (0.28x), are also the three EAs with the lowest share of months above their average (29.5%, 23.4% and 17.1%). In those tests a handful of months carried much of the average.

- BITCOIN COMET: average +6.86%, median +1.22%, best month +184.3%. A typical month was a small gain; the average describes the best months, not a typical one.

- MEGAMAX DONCHIAN (USDJPY) and DONCHIAN ENGINE (free), the engine behind it, lose in 51 of 113 and 52 of 113 months. Their medians (+1.30% and +0.40%) are well below their averages (+3.81% and +0.90%), and the ratios are 0.34x and 0.44x.

- A ratio close to 1 does not mean a safe EA. GOLD KING has the highest ratio and no losing month, and also the largest drawdown in the table, 91.3%. GOLD VIPER (0.64x) and ATLAS PORTFOLIO (0.73x) sit in between, with 30.3% and 26.3%.

- When a seller quotes a monthly average, ask for the median month of the same test. If the median is a fraction of the average, most months will look weaker than the headline.

- Judge an EA by the months it will usually deliver, and keep the maximum drawdown of the same test beside them. A quiet median with a high average means the result depends on a few months you may not be in the market for.

- Check how many months beat the average. If it is 20% or 30%, expect most months to land below it.

- This article is about past tests. It does not promise any future result.

- All forward accounts we publish are demo accounts, and none is used in this article.

The two EAs discussed most in this article: ETHEREUM TREND https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/182358 · GOLD TRIPWIRE https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/202581