Today’s Market Outlook November 10, 2026 Focus on month-over-month US CPI; Waller’s remarks lift USD/JPY back into the

November 10, 2026

Focus on month-over-month US CPI; Waller’s remarks lift USD/JPY back into the 158s

Market overview

USD/JPY fell to 157.87 early in London before rebounding to 158.17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke in favor of a rate hike. Tonight’s key question is whether US CPI will strengthen expectations for further rate hikes and allow the pair to extend its gains in the 158s.

Ahead of US CPI, traders largely stayed on the sidelines in Tokyo, leaving USD/JPY in a narrow 157.89–158.12 range. Early in London, crude futures fell to the low $84s and the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.855%. Dollar selling took hold, lifting EUR/USD to 1.1251 and GBP/USD to 1.3459.

The dollar later recovered after Waller’s remarks, with the US Dollar Index rising from 101.408 to 101.688. The market is weighing easing inflation concerns from lower oil prices against the prospect of further Fed rate hikes.

US CPI: 1:30 p.m. London time

The October US Consumer Price Index is due at 1:30 p.m. London time. Because October of last year was not compiled amid the partial US government shutdown, the year-over-year figures will not be published this time. The month-over-month readings will therefore be the main guide.

• Headline CPI: +0.3% month over month expected, versus +0.6% previously

• Core CPI: +0.2% month over month expected, versus +0.3% previously

Markets expect both headline and core inflation to slow. Gasoline prices fell in October, so even if headline inflation undershoots, a strong core reading could keep inflation concerns alive. Tonight, in addition to the headline figure, the extent of any slowdown in core inflation—which excludes food and energy—will be important.

If both headline and core CPI exceed expectations, US yields and the dollar are more likely to rise. If both come in below expectations, rate-hike pricing could retreat and dollar selling may resume.

Waller’s remarks and the December FOMC

Before the CPI release, markets had priced in an 84.2% probability of a 0.25 percentage-point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting and a 15.8% probability of no change. Since a standard-sized hike is already largely priced in, an in-line CPI report may not be enough to trigger a substantial increase in dollar buying.

Waller backed a 0.25 percentage-point rate hike in December. He also said a 0.50 percentage-point increase could be warranted if core CPI rises by 0.3% or more month over month. His comments have shifted attention beyond whether rates will rise to the size of any increase.

The 0.3% figure is the threshold Waller cited. If core CPI reaches that level, watch the reaction in short-term US interest rates to see whether markets begin pricing in a larger hike.

USD/JPY

The immediate focus is whether USD/JPY can hold above 158 and break through the London-session high of 158.17. If US CPI beats expectations and US yields rise, the Ichimoku cloud top near 158.42 is the next level to watch, followed by the 200-day moving average near 158.69.

If buying in the 158s fails to persist, today’s low of 157.87 is the first level to monitor. A break below it would bring the previous day’s overseas-session low of 157.67 into view, followed by the area around 157.52.

The BOJ’s Summary of Opinions released today included views that the Bank should not be excessively cautious about its next rate hike, alongside concerns about risks to economic activity and prices. Meanwhile, September household spending fell 6.8% year over year, a weaker result than expected. Domestic signals are mixed. Tonight, US CPI and the reaction in US yields are likely to lead USD/JPY.

Euro, pound, and yen crosses

EUR/USD rose to 1.1251 as oil prices and US yields fell, but slipped back to around 1.1220 after Waller’s remarks. A weak CPI report could prompt another test of 1.1250, while a strong report would put the pair’s ability to hold above 1.1200 in focus.

GBP/USD also reached 1.3459 at one point. Comments from Bank of England officials are scheduled, but immediately after the CPI release, dollar movements driven by US yields are likely to take priority.

EUR/JPY rose to 177.71 and GBP/JPY to 212.65. European equities opened firmly, and lower oil prices supported risk appetite and yen selling. If a hotter-than-expected US CPI report sends equities lower tonight, cross-yen pairs could struggle to advance even if USD/JPY rises.

Oil and the Middle East

NY crude futures briefly fell to the low $84s, their lowest level since late August. Early in London, lower oil prices eased concerns about US inflation and weighed on the dollar, while supporting European equities and encouraging yen selling. These two opposing forces helped USD/JPY hold around 158.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency later reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had said two tankers were on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The impact on supply and shipping remains unclear. If oil rebounds, also watch the response in US yields and equities.

Key points for overseas markets

• Whether core CPI exceeds the forecast of +0.2% month over month at 1:30 p.m.

• If core CPI is +0.3% or higher, whether markets price in a larger rate hike

• Whether USD/JPY breaks above 158.17 or falls below 157.87

• Whether US equities and cross-yen pairs hold up as US yields rise

• Whether Middle East headlines trigger a rebound in oil from its lows

• The US 10-year Treasury auction ($42 billion) at 6:00 p.m. on November 10,