Brent crude oil continues to recover after its recent decline. On August 11, prices rose to $88.90 per barrel, with the benchmark gaining around 5% over the past two days. The main driver was the deteriorating outlook for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.
At the beginning of August, oil prices were falling amid expectations of a possible deal and a gradual restoration of shipping through the strait. The situation has now changed: renewed disagreements between the two sides have increased the risk of a prolonged standoff and further supply disruptions.
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Factors Supporting Brent:
- Negotiations have reached an impasse. New U.S. demands on Iran have reduced the chances of a quick agreement. The market is once again pricing in the risk that full tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not be restored soon.
- Shipments through Hormuz remain limited. Only six vessels passed through the strait on Monday, compared with an average of around eleven over the previous ten days. Oil exports through the route fell to approximately 3 million barrels per day, down from 4.4 million barrels a week earlier.
- Risks are also rising in the Red Sea. Houthi attacks continue to threaten alternative routes through Bab el-Mandeb. Disruptions on two major shipping routes simultaneously increase transportation costs and raise concerns about the stability of global oil supplies.
For the oil market, the $90 level has become an important psychological threshold. A sustained break above it could strengthen expectations of further gains, particularly if negotiations fail to resume or new supply disruptions emerge.
At the same time, higher oil prices pose risks beyond the commodity market. Rising energy costs could once again increase inflationary pressure and influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy.
According to FreshForex analysts, the current base-case scenario for Brent remains bullish. As long as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz show no progress and supply disruption risks persist, oil prices are likely to remain supported. If geopolitical tensions continue, Brent could move higher and establish itself above $90 per barrel.
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