XAUUSD: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00
Gold begins the week with moderate support as a weaker US dollar and a sharp decline in oil prices ease concerns about renewed inflationary pressure. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, alongside support from some policymakers for a rate increase, is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for the metal.
The main test will come from the US labor market data. Weak figures could reduce expectations of a rate increase and strengthen interest in XAUUSD, while a strong report may restore pressure. If the US dollar remains subdued and oil market conditions stay stable, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in gold.
Trading idea: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00
#SP500: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670
The #SP500 is receiving support from lower oil prices, which reduce the risk of renewed pressure on corporate costs and consumer demand. The earnings season also remains a source of resilience, although the market’s response to technology sector results is becoming more selective.
This week, the index’s direction will be shaped by employment data and further corporate earnings reports. A strong labor market could revive expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase and intensify pressure from elevated yields. For now, the decline in the energy risk premium is supporting demand for equities, leaving a cautious upside scenario as the base case.
Trading idea: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670
#BRENT: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50
Brent begins the week with a sharp decline after the United States cancelled new strikes against Iran and hopes for renewed negotiations increased. The restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the risk premium, while higher OPEC+ production quotas from September are reinforcing expectations of more abundant supply.
Negotiations could still break down, while regional supplies remain constrained, meaning the decline in oil prices may not be one-sided. Nevertheless, part of the geopolitical premium has already been removed, while demand forecasts remain restrained. If the diplomatic scenario remains intact, the priority stays with further downside in #BRENT.
Trading idea: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50
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