EUR/USD Forecast: Fresh Lows, Looking for 1.1250

EUR/USD Forecast: Fresh Lows, Looking for 1.1250

13 May 2016, 13:34
Roberto Jacobs

EUR/USD Forecast: Fresh Lows, Looking for 1.1250

The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1328, a fresh weekly low, following the release of German data, showing that inflation remains within deflationary territory, down by 0.4% monthly basis, and -0.1% compared to a year before. The readings were in line with market's expectations, but still a bad sign. Preliminary GDP for the first quarter in the country, grew more than expected, up 0.7%, but year on year basis it resulted at 1.3%, against 2.1% previous.


The EU Q1 GDP was not that encouraging. The region grew 0.5% during the first three months of the year, while the yearly reading came in at 1.5%, both missing expectations and below previous. Asian shares are sharply lower, while European ones opened in the red amid poor data.

The pair managed to bounce some from the mentioned low, but holds near its  and the 4 hour chart shows that the recovery stalled well below the 61.8% retracement of the latest bullish run at 1.1370, whilst the technical indicators head lower within bearish territory and that the price is well below its moving averages, all of which maintains the risk towards the downside. 

Renewed selling pressure driving the pair below 1.1310, moreover on positive data coming from the US later on the day, should see the pair extending its decline down to 1.1240/60, while below this last, a test of 1.1200 seems possible.

Above 1.1370, the pair can recover up to 1.1420, although further advances seem unlikely for today.


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