Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 27 – May 01, 2026

The past week was influenced by data on consumer activity and business dynamics, which overall confirmed the resilience of the US economy without signs of a sharp slowdown. The releases did not provide the market with new signals regarding a potential easing of Federal Reserve policy, allowing expectations of high interest rates to remain in place. At the same time, the dollar did not receive sustained support, and markets continued to move within ranges. Additional volatility factors include geopolitical risks and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

💶 EUR/USD

As expected, the EUR/USD pair slightly corrected after the previous growth and closed the week at 1.1718. The nearest resistance is located at 1.1810-1.1830, and in case of a breakout, the next target may be the 1.1900-1.1930 area. Support is located at 1.1670-1.1700, followed by the 1.1600-1.1620 zone. Given the ongoing medium-term sideways trend, further decline toward this support zone cannot be ruled out. An additional downside factor may be an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin closed the week at 77,755, maintaining positions above the 73,900-74,000 zone. The market remains in an upward correction phase after breaking out of the sideways range, although the momentum is gradually slowing. The nearest resistance is located at 79,500-80,000. In case of a breakout, the next target may be the 82,000-85,000 area. A move into the 85,000-90,000 range still appears less likely. Support is located at 73,900-74,000, followed by 70,000-71,500 and 68,800-70,000. While the price remains above 76,000, the scenario stays neutral-to-bullish, but may be adjusted depending on the dynamics of the US dollar.

🛢 Brent Oil

Brent prices increased and closed the week at 99.92 per barrel, returning to the central zone of the range. The nearest resistance is 102.00-103.00, followed by 106.00-108.00. Support is located at 97.00-98.00, then 92.00-94.00 and 88.50-90.40. The market remains highly sensitive to news from the Middle East. Ongoing geopolitical risks and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support high volatility, therefore priority should be given to fundamental factors.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold closed the week at 4,708 per ounce, correcting after reaching monthly highs. The nearest resistance is located at 4,750-4,800, followed by 4,850 and 5,000. Support is located at 4,645-4,685, then 4,525-4,550 and 4,350-4,400. While the price remains above 4,645, the scenario stays neutral-to-bullish, although a stronger US dollar may lead to further decline.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

In the coming week, the main focus will be on central bank decisions. On April 28, interest rate decisions will be announced by the central banks of Japan and Brazil, while on April 29 markets will focus on the US Federal Reserve – the FOMC decision and the subsequent press conference. April 30 will be another key day, with rate decisions from the Bank of England and the ECB, as well as the ECB press conference. Additional important macroeconomic data will also be released, including US GDP and the Core PCE index, which may amplify market reactions. The week is expected to be volatile, with market direction largely driven by central bank communication.

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral with a risk of decline toward 1.1600-1.1620. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bullish above 76,000. Brent – neutral-volatile around 100.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bullish above 4,645.