Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 20 – 24, 2026

The past week was influenced by inflation and macroeconomic data, which overall did not provide the market with new guidance. The release of PPI and Core PPI in the US showed that producer-level price pressure remains stable, but without sharp acceleration, allowing the market to maintain its previous expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy. At the same time, US initial jobless claims remained at stable levels, not signalling a noticeable cooling of the labour market. The CPI release in the Eurozone confirmed moderate inflation pressure and did not significantly affect expectations regarding ECB policy. Overall, these factors did not lead to the formation of sustained trends, but contributed to the weakening of the dollar and a reallocation of capital toward safe-haven assets and the equity market.

💶 EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.1763, holding above the 1.1600-1.1620 zone. The nearest resistance is now located in the 1.1810-1.1830 range, and in case of a breakout, the next target may be the 1.1900-1.1930 area. The nearest support is at 1.1700-1.1720. At the same time, given the ongoing medium-term sideways trend, a decline toward the 1.1600-1.1620 zone cannot be ruled out, as this level now acts as key support. An additional downside factor may be a renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin closed the week at 77,385, managing to hold above the 73,900-74,000 zone and thereby confirming a breakout from the sideways range. The nearest resistance now shifts to 80,000. In case of further growth, the next target may be the 82,000-85,000 area. A move into the 85,000-90,000 range currently appears unlikely. Support is located at 73,900-74,000, followed by 68,800-70,000 and 65,500-66,500. While BTC/USD remains above 74,000, the scenario shifts toward a neutral-to-bullish one, although volatility remains high.

🛢 Brent Oil

Brent closed the week at 91.90 per barrel, remaining under pressure after optimistic statements by the US president. The nearest resistance is located at 94.00-95.00, followed by 97.00-98.00. Support is at 90.40, then 88.80 and 84.50. While the price remains below 94.00-95.00, the scenario for Brent stays neutral-to-bearish. Ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continue to support high volatility and do not rule out another sharp price spike, therefore priority should be given to fundamental factors.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold closed the week at 4,835 per ounce, once again approaching local highs. The nearest resistance is located at 4,850-4,900, followed by 5,000 and 5,120. Support is at 4,750-4,800, then 4,645-4,685, 4,525-4,550 and 4,350-4,400. While the price remains above 4,750, the scenario stays neutral-to-bullish, although signs of overheating are increasing.

📈 Key Events and Baseline Scenarios of the Week

In the coming week, market attention will focus on consumer activity and business dynamics data. On April 21, US retail sales data, including the core figure, will be released. On April 22, the UK CPI will be published, while US crude oil inventories will also be released. On April 23, US initial jobless claims will be published, along with preliminary PMI data in both the manufacturing and services sectors. These releases may set the short-term direction for the dollar, euro and commodity markets.

Baseline scenarios: EUR/USD – neutral with a bearish bias while the pair remains above 1.1600-1.1620. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bullish above 74,000. Brent – neutral-to-bearish below 94.00-95.00. XAU/USD – neutral-to-bullish above 4,750.