EUR/USD: Change to Bearish: Downside potential likely limited to 1.1145.
We have held a neutral EUR view for close to 4 weeks and the break below the key 1.1325/30 support yesterday indicates that the neutral phase has ended. While further EUR weakness is expected from here, the downside potential appears to be limited to 1.1145.
Resistance is 1.1350 but only a move above 1.1395 would indicate that our bearish expectation is wrong.
GBP/USD: Neutral: Diminished odds for extension higher.
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The pull-back from the 1.4348 high 2 days ago has been more rapid than expected and the odds for our expectation for a stronger rebound to 1.4380 have diminished.
From here, a move below 1.4105 would indicate that GBP has moved into a consolidation range, likely between 1.4050 and 1.4350.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Break above 0.7725/50 would indicate resumption of bullish trend.
AUD touched a low of 0.7490 late last week and the subsequent up-move from the bottom has been more rapid and resilient than expected. While short-term upward momentum has improved considerably, only a clear break above the strong 0.7725/50 resistance zone would indicate the resumption of the bullish trend.
In the meanwhile, this pair is expected remain underpinned and the upward pressure will continue to increase unless there is a move back below 0.7580/85 in the next 1 to 2 days.
NZD/USD: Neutral: Back into range trading, likely between 0.6760 and 0.6970.
As highlighted yesterday, only a clear move above the 0.6965/70 resistance would indicate the start of a bullish phase.
The surprising rapid drop from the high of 0.6952 took out the strong 0.6870 support and from here, NZD has likely moved back into a consolidation range, likely between 0.6760 and 0.6960.
USD/JPY: Bearish: Decreased odds for extension lower.
A break above 109.60 would indicate that a short-term low is place. This appears to be likely scenario unless there is move back below 108.40 within these two days.