7 April 2016, 11:22
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Neutral: Likely in a broad 1.1330/1.1495 range.

There is not much to add as EUR tested the 1.1330 support before rebounding quickly. The undertone is positive but momentum is patchy at best and it is unclear at this stage whether EUR strength could surmount the major 1.1495 resistance (1.1435/40 is already a strong short-term level).

That said, only a clear break below 1.1325/50 would indicate that the immediate upward pressure has eased.

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GBP/USD: Neutral: Still neutral but downside risk has increased.

The break below the major 1.4050 support was short-lived as GBP rebounded strongly from a low of 1.4006. The downside risk has clearly increased but at this stage, we prefer to maintain our neutral view.

That said, the downward pressure will continue to grow unless this pair can move back above 1.4280 in the next 1 to 2 days. A break below 1.4000 would increase the odds for a retest of the 1.3835 March low.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Pull-back could extend lower to 0.7475/80.

We just turned neutral yesterday and there is no change to the view. Despite the overnight rebound, the pull-back from the late March peak of 0.7723 appears to have scope to extend lower in the days ahead.

However, any further AUD weakness is likely limited to the major support at 0.7475/80.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6720/0.6930 range.

We just turned neutral yesterday and there is no change to the view.

We have likely seen a short-term top last week and the current movement is viewed as the start of a consolidation phase and we expect this pair to trade in a neutral 0.6720/0.6930 range from here.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Next level to aim for is at 109.00.

We turned bearish USD yesterday but as mentioned, it appears that we may have seen the bulk of the weakness.

While the immediate 109.50 target was exceeded, the current drop is over-extended and any further down-move will likely be at a slower pace. The next level to aim for is at 109.00. 

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