Non-Farm Payrolls: actual data forecasting related to September hike - BNP Paribas

Non-Farm Payrolls: actual data forecasting related to September hike - BNP Paribas

3 September 2015, 09:11
Sergey Golubev
1
1 031

2015-09-04 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Payrolls]

  • past data is 215K
  • forecast data is 220K
  • actual data is n/a

If actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

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BNP Paribas made the comments on Friday's NFP related to September Fed hike and actual data forecasting. As we know - the forecast data is 220K, and if actual data is more than 220K for example so the USD to be more stronger in this case. Concerning EUR/USD, we can see that it may be bearish condition to be increase for this pair during and immediate after this high impacted news event:

  • "Our economists expect an above-consensus 230K increase in jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 5.3%."
  • "Although this probably won’t be enough to force a September hike, there is scope for the US yield curve to turn more USD supportive if markets have greater conviction in the strength of the US economy and the Fed’s ability to pursue a sustained policy normalization cycle."

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EURUSD M5: 90 pips range price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:

M5 chart

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