EURGBP Next Week Outlook - ranging for breakdown

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.14 19:00

Forex Weekly Outlook August 17-21 (based on forexcrunch article)

Japan GDP data, Inflation in the UK, the US and Canada, FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. These are our market movers for this week. Join us as we explore the highlights on Forex calendar.

U.S. data released last week raises hopes for a Fed rate hike by the end of the third quarter. Retail sales rebounded in July amid a rise in purchases of automobiles and other goods, suggesting growth rate is positive in the second and third quarters. Retail sales edged up 0.6%, in line with market forecast, while core sales, excluding automobiles gained 0.4%. The robust release added to a strong employment data, suggesting the US economy is on solid footing. Will this trend continue?

1. Japan GDP data: Sunday, 23:50. Japan’s economy recovered from the brief tax-induced recession in 2014, with GDP growth of 0.6% in the first quarter, exceeding market forecasts of 0.4% expansion rate. On a yearly base, GDP grew 2.4%, way above the 1.6% rise expected by analysts. Domestic consumption edged up 4.3% and wage growth increased, indicating a positive momentum. Exports increased 10% due to the weaker yen, but inflation continues to fail, despite the massive money-printing program aimed to lift inflation. Economists estimate a 0.5% contraction in the second quarter.
2. UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK Inflation index inflation fell to 0% in June, from 0.1% in the prior month due to a decline in clothing and food prices as well as air fares. Bank of England governor Mark Carney expects inflation to remain low in the coming months, but anticipates a pick-up by the end of this year. However, rising wages expected to increase consumption, leading to stronger inflation pressure. UK CPI is expected to remain flat this time.
3. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of building permits issued in June edged up 7.4% to a 1.34 million-unit rate, the highest level since July 2007. Builders’ confidence also reached a 9-1/2-year high in July, indicating the housing market is expected to expand further in the coming months. Economists forecast that the housing market will compensate for the struggling manufacturing sector. The number of permits is expected to reach 1.21million in July.
4. US Inflation data: Wednesday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices increased 0.3% in June, rising for the fifth consecutive time after a rebound in gasoline prices as well as a range of other goods indicating inflation is back in track. The recent positive economic data such as the growth trend in the housing market raises the odds for a rate hike in the near future. June’s gain was preceded by a 0.4% in May. Both CPI and Core CPI are expected to gain 0.2% this time.
5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In their previous meeting, Federal Reserve officials started preparing for a rate raise later this year, amid promising economic data. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said he wants to make sure the economy progresses in line with the Fed’s expectations before voting to raise rates. Even those supporting the tightening measures, preferred to delay the rate hike until September.
6. Japan rate decision: Thursday. Aug 7 The Bank of Japan kept its accommodative monetary policy, aiming toward 2% inflation without additional monetary easing. However, economists believe the 2% deadline may be changed, depending on future oil price moves. The weak yen is positive for exports and companies but is bad for households and small firms via rising import costs. Household sentiment picked up and Consumer spending remained string after emerging from a temporary hit from bad weather.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits increased unexpectedly by 5,000 last week, reaching 274,000. However, the general trend remains positive, indicating the US labor market continues to strengthen. Analysts expected claims to reach 272,000, but the number of new claims continue to stay below the 300,000 threshold and the four-week moving average of claims fell 1,750 to 266,250, the lowest since April 2000. The number if new claims are expected to reach 272,000 this week.
8. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Philadelphia’s manufacturing gauge for the region plunged in June to 5.7 from 15.2 in June. The reading was worse than the 12.5 points estimated earlier but still indication expansion. The strong dollar and softer global demand lowered the number of orders for manufactured goods. Economists expect a meaningful rebound in the next few months. New orders reached 7.1, from 15.2 and employment remained flat. Philadelphia’s manufacturing index is expected to reach 7.2 in July.