Bank of England watchers are bracing themselves for an unusually large barrage of information Thursday that should offer fresh clues as to when officials are likely to raise interest rates.
The BOE is due to publish minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s deliberations alongside its monthly policy decision for the first time. The minutes, which include a record of how individual policymakers voted, are usually published with a two-week lag.
The central bank will also publish its quarterly inflation report, a 50-page collection of economic forecasts that’s invaluable for investors trying to work out officials’ next move.
And as if that wasn’t enough to digest, Gov. Mark Carney and other senior officials will host a press conference to explain their latest thinking on policy and the economic outlook.
The packed itinerary–economists have dubbed it “Super Thursday”–follows a December 2014 review by former Federal Reserve board governor Kevin Warsh into the BOE’s disclosure practices.
Previously, the rate decision, the minutes and–once a quarter–the inflation report were published on different days. Mr. Warsh recommended narrowing the gap to make the thinking behind policy decisions clearer.
The changes foreshadow a move in 2016 to eight policy meetings a year for the MPC instead of the current 12. That new schedule will bring the BOE into line with rate-setters at the Fed and the European Central Bank.
The BOE isn’t expected to raise its benchmark interest rate on Super Thursday. Yet amid all the noise, investors will be watching out for two critical things. First, whether one or two officials on the nine-person panel break ranks and push for rate increases to begin. And second, whether changes to the BOE’s forecasts for growth and inflation imply an earlier or later timing for liftoff.
