USD: Bullish
"We expect USD
strength to be focused against EM and commodity currencies."
EUR: Bearish
"Many
investors have hedged equity positions in Europe with short EUR. This suggests that in an environment
where commodity currencies and EM may sell off, risk generally could
take a hit, adding some support to EUR in the near term. Over the medium
to longer term, however, we retain our bearish view on EUR."
JPY: Neutral
"We believe the BoJ is likely to refrain from further easing barring an
unforeseeable shock to inflation, which should offer support to JPY.
The central bank is likely focused on its new core CPI measure which
does not include energy, and has grown steadily over recent months."
GBP: Bullish
"GBP performance will unfold in three phases going
forward. First, broad-based GBP strength heading into the August 6 MPC
meeting, where we expect the first vote for a rate hike. Second, a more
selective approach after the August meeting. Finally, given the
longer-term headwinds to UK growth from fiscal tightening and political
uncertainty, the currency may lose steam after the first hike."
CAD: Bearish
"We like
buying USDCAD on this dip, believing that as oil price uncertainty
continues to mount, USDCAD will continue to head higher, testing the
levels reached at the end of last week. On top of this, the second round
impact of the lower oil price on the economy is likely to continue to
be seen, possibly in upcoming employment data."
