- "We remain of the view that a solution can be found in order to give Greece access to funds to repay the IMF next Tuesday. The EUR, however, is unlikely to face any material upside in an environment of strongly capped ECB monetary policy expectations.
- If this is confirmed over the weekend, we suspect that USD could emerge as the biggest beneficiary and expect it to extend its gains against a broad range of G10 currencies. While a relief bounce in EUR cannot be excluded, we doubt that it will be sustained and expect renewed weakness especially against risk-correlated currencies and USD.
- The risks to the above view have clearly grown of late, however, and we think that caution is warranted ahead of the talks over the weekend.
- If Greece and its creditors fail to reach an agreement this could weigh on risk sentiment as default fears soar at the start of the new week. EUR could weaken especially against liquid G10 currencies like JPY and USD."
USD. Next week’s labour data should keep Fed rate expectations supported to the benefit of the greenback.
EUR. Regardless of any positive developments, related to Greece, we expect the EUR to remain subject to downside risk. This is due to the ECB’s aggressive policy stance.GBP. Wealth effects to aid consumer spending. With Eurozone financial problems likely to persist irrespective of any Greek deal, the superior UK economic outlook should continue to support GBP in the week ahead.
JPY. Tankan unlikely to lift investor spirits. In keeping with the more cautious BoJ message expressed in recent weeks, key Japanese indicators this week should remain soft.