The U.K. Office for National Statistics said it is planning to upgrade its forecast for economic growth to 2.9% for 2014, from 2.8%, as long
as other estimates, such as revisions to consumer spending or
income, remained the same. Last year made Great Britain the fastest-growing
economy among the Group of Seven advanced nations even before a
revision.
The agency also said it was likely revising its estimates for growth for the first three months of this year to 0.4%, from 0.3%. Fresh GDP figures, which will include these new estimates, are set to be published on June 30.
Production in the construction sector dipped 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015 and actually rose 0.2% during the final quarter of 2014. This is compared with previous estimates of 1.1% and 2.2% falls respectively, the ONS said.
The ONS has changed the way it calculates price changes in the construction sector and the way it adjusts its data for seasonal factors such as the timing of public holidays, the Guardian reports.
As the Wall Street Journal says, chief economist at data company Markit Chris Williamson considers that the latest reports have been upbeat and the revised official figures now echo that.
“The UK economic upturn over the past year has been stronger than previously thought after substantial data revisions show that the construction sector has not acted as such a drag on the economy. The revisions bring the economy’s performance more into line with recent survey evidence,” he said.
Below you can see a chart published by the Wall Street Journal:
The upward revision of growth of 0.9% provides an upwards revision of 0.1 percentage points to the growth rate of GDP. Have a look at the graph from the Guardian:
This chart shows the smaller dip under the latest figures, arrived at using an “interim solution” for calculating price changes in the sector. The chart shows the quarterly path for output in the construction industry, all work, seasonally adjusted, £ million, Great Britain.
