Weekly economic outlook Nov 9-13

Weekly economic outlook Nov 9-13

9 November 2015, 09:48

This week looks calmer, especially compared to the previous two. The dollar continues to rise against its peers after the U.S. government reported a surge in hiring last month and the lowest unemployment rate in seven years. The Non-Farm Payrolls report showed the U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs last month, beating expectations of 180,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to a seasonally adjusted 5.0%, from 5.1% in the previous month. Analysts had expected the U.S. unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.1% last month.

The dollar gained more than 1% following the NFP report against the euro and the pound, extending the monthly losses to 2.13% and 2.28% respectively. The greenback surged above the key resistance level of 121.65 against the yen, recording its sixth positive day in a row while it added more than 2% to its value the last week – the largest weekly gain since May.

U.S. Treasury yields surged following the jobs report, with the 2-year yield marking its highest level in 5-1/2-years. With the above in mind, hopes for a rise in U.S. interest rates in December have jumped above 70%.

Monday, November 9

The Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers are to hold talks in Brussels.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will present an economic outlook for the overall activity in the OECD area, however, it poses no threat to the euro.

The Canadian housing starts for October will be out.

In the U.S., the labor market conditions index for October will be out.

Tuesday, November 10

Japan is to post data on its current account.

The National Australia Bank will release October’s business confidence.

The Westpac consumer confidence for November will be also out.

China is to issue data on inflation, with reports on both the consumer and producer price indices. The inflation rate is expected to decline further to 1.5% from 1.6% before while the consuming prices growth, on a monthly basis, is forecast to enter the negative territory again, at -0.2%, after four months.

Later Tuesday, New Zealand’s central bank is to publish its bi-yearly financial stability report.

Wednesday, November 11

Australia is to release data on consumer sentiment.

China is to publish data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

The U.K. is to publish the monthly employment report. Last week the British economy revealed a slow growth and its inflation rate grinding to a halt, but its labor market is still strong. The ILO unemployment rate dipped to 5.4% in the three months to August, the lowest level since March to May of 2008. The weekly earnings are rising more than 2% the last half year and peaked to 3% in August while the market expects them to have risen even more by 3.2%. The claimant count change, which represents the number of British claiming for unemployment benefits, climbed above zero the last two months, though it had been negative for a long time. However, the market expects it to decrease back to 1.4k from 4.6k.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is expected hold a press conference about the quarterly inflation report.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in London.

Thursday, November 12

Japan is to publish data on core machinery orders.

Australia is to post its monthly employment report. October’s unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.2% while the employment change is forecast to show 15.0k new job positions from -5.1k before. 

The German inflation rate for October will be released, but no major changes are expected.

Eurozone’s industrial production for September will be out. Traders expect it to grow by a sharper 1.7% from 0.9% before, year over year, counter to the recent ECB move to cut economic growth forecasts.

Canada is to report on new house price inflation.

The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 13

In Japan, the capacity utilization and the industrial production for September will be out.

The euro area and Germany are to publish preliminary data on third quarter economic growth. Eurozone’s GDP is predicted to pick up by 1.7% in the three months to September, on a yearly basis.

The trade balance for the euro area in September will also be released.

Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to terminate the week with data on retail sales, producer prices, and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment. After the surprising surge in the NFP report, the retail sales for October will be closely monitored. Both the retail sales and the retail sales indicators are expected to have risen in October.

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