By Brent Radcliffe AAA |
Since the early 1990s, there have been many cases of currency investors who have been caught off guard, which lead to runs on currencies and capital flight. What makes currency investors and international financiers respond and act like this? Do they evaluate the minutia of an economy, or do they go by gut instinct? In this article, we'll look at currency instability and uncover what really causes it.
What Is a Currency Crisis?
A currency crisis is brought on by a decline in the value of a country's currency. This decline in value negatively affects an economy by creating instabilities in exchange rates, meaning that one unit of the currency no longer buys as much as it used to in another. To simplify the matter, we can say that crises develop as an interaction between investor expectations and what those expectations cause to happen.
Government Policy, Central Banks and the Role of Investors
When faced with the prospect of a currency crisis, central bankers in a fixed exchange rate economy can try to maintain the current fixed exchange rate by eating into the country's foreign reserves, or letting the exchange rate fluctuate.
Why is tapping into foreign reserves a solution? When the market expects devaluation, downward pressure placed on the currency can really only be offset by an increase in the interest rate. In order to increase the rate, the central bank has to shrink the money supply, which in turn increases demand for the currency. The bank can do this by selling off foreign reserves to create a capital outflow. When the bank sells a portion of its foreign reserves, it receives payment in the form of the domestic currency, which it holds out of circulation as an asset.
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