President Draghi - Parity Call Still Intact For Q3

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Press review

newdigital, 2015.04.17 06:22

EUR/USD: BNP say Greek deal unlikely by April 24, see a May deal to avoid default (adapted from forexlive article)

• Negotiations have ground to a halt
• The Greek government has until 20 April to present economic and fiscal reforms
• Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers on 24 April
• Recent comments by EU officials suggest an imminent deal to unlock the last tranche of Greece's bailout funds still looks unlikely
• The Eurogroup meeting on 11 May is now being touted as the date of a potential deal on Greece
• Greece facing about EUR 0.2bn in interest payments to the IMF on 1 May and a EUR 0.8bn IMF loan redemption on 12 May
• We continue to expect the Greeks to make a last-minute U-turn to secure a deal in the not-too distant future

But ...

• it is impossible to rule out a worst-case scenario in which a deal is not reached ... Greece does not pay the IMF and the Greek government decides to hold a referendum on the terms of an EU bailout and/or membership of currency union
• If the outcome of a referendum were positive (ie, with the majority of Greeks agreeing to the terms of a bailout deal and/or a continuation of euro membership), this could potentially help Mr Tsipras to reshape Syriza, or form a coalition with pro-European, reform-friendly parties, such as Pasok or To Potami
• This would be positive for the country's future relationship with the EU, but the implications of capital controls for sentiment and growth would be negative, at least in the short term, creating new problems, such as even greater funding needs.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.04.17 15:45

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

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U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% For Second Straight Month In March

While the Labor Department released a report on Friday showing another modest increase in U.S. consumer prices in the month of March, prices rose by slightly less than economists had anticipated.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index edged up by 0.2 percent in March, matching the increase seen in February. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.3 percent.

The continued increase in prices was partly due to another notable increase in energy prices, which rose by 1.1 percent in March after climbing by 1.0 percent in February.

The gasoline index showed its biggest increase since February of 2013, surging up by 3.9 percent, while the fuel oil index also jumped by 5.9 percent.

However, the increase in energy prices was partly offset by a drop in food prices, as the food index fell by 0.2 percent in March after rising by 0.2 percent in February.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

newdigital, 2015.04.17 18:54

EURUSD tests resistance again (based on forexlive article)

The weekend flows can wreck havoc. Greece will be in play over weekend (and going forward).  As a result geo-political risk have the potential to lead to more squaring up and choppy trading action -especially in the next hour.